283 FXUS63 KILX 251105 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 605 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70. PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA (SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 SCATTERED HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. NAM TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE STRONG DEEP LIFT FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AND PLAY HAVOC WITH CIGS. WILL KEEP PREDOMINATE CIGS MVFR FOR NOW. AS THE WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH MAY HAVE LOWERING CIGS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MAIN PRECIP AREA. WILL TRY TO TREND THIS POSSIBILITY WITH SO MUCH UNCERTIANTY BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE THOUGH THERE COULD BE SPOTS WHERE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TONIGHT TO LIMIT ANY BR VSBY DROPS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARKER LONG TERM...GEELHART AVIATION...BARKER