808 
FXUS62 KFFC 100007
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
807 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ 

..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD FRONT 
PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT TERM 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE 
EVENING. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO LARGELY BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OR 
NORTHERN GEORGIA. 

FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HI-RES 
MODELED REFLECTIVITY PUSHING THE LINE OF CONVECTION INTO FAR 
NORTHWEST GEORGIA BETWEEN 7-8AM. HAVE QUICKLY RAMPED UP POPS FRIDAY 
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL 
CHANCES OF THUNDER FROM NORTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THE ATLANTA METRO 
AREA BY MID DAY...AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID AFTERNOON. CHANCES 
DO TAPER OFF INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO MODEL 
UNCERTAINTY. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS 
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. 

SPC DOES HAVE GEORGIA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS 
FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY 
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO LAWRENCEVILLE...TO HARTWELL. 
NORTH OF THIS LINE THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. 
MODELED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG 
RANGE...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE LIMITED. EXPECT SOME STRONG 
TO SEVERE STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING 
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHORT TERM FORECAST TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GIVE RECORDS A RUN FOR 
THEIR MONEY. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY MEET OR EXCEED THE 
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT ATL AND AHN 
/SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE/. THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS RUNNING 5 OR 
SO DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THE LAST 
SEVERAL DAYS...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY 
MORNING. 

31

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AMAZING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SPOILED ON MONDAY AS
APPROACHING BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHERN STREAM OVER SRN ROCKIES
BRINGS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO THE MID SOUTH. SHRA AND ELEVATED
TSRA LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGGED BY 12Z MED RANGE MODELS. LESS CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS FOR WED DUE TO SMALL SCALE OF SECOND
WAVE. MUCH LARGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALSO PROGGED TO DIG
SHARPLY INTO THE PLAINS WED AND EVEN DEVELOPING CLOSED UPR LOW ON
THURS OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DRAMATICALLY COOLER AIR. IF LATER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A ROUND OF STORMS FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SNELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OCCUR
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HAVE THEREFORE BROAD BRUSHED POPS
NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR THIS WEEKEND THE COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN AS THE H5
LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE GET INTO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING
A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS.

17

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      89 1919     48 2003     67 1999     32 2000    
                                                    1972    
   KATL      86 2011     47 1899     68 1999     32 2000    
                1995        1896                            
   KCSG      89 1978     56 1989     70 1999     34 2000    
   KMCN      91 1978     53 1916     69 1999     32 2000    
                            1899                            

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING CU FIELD AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT AND APPROACHING FRONT FRIDAY WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CIGS SLIGHTLY BEFORE AND ACCOMPANYING -TS/SHRA. BEST CHANCE
FOR TSRA NEAR 17-21Z FRIDAY FOR KATL AND NEARBY SITES...THEN
SLIGHTLY LATER FOR OTHER SITES. CAN SEE VRB10G20KT WINDS OR HIGHER
WITH STORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS INITIALLY 7-10 KTS SW...THEN 4-6 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND 8-10 KTS DURING DAY BECOMING WEST TO NW LATE IN THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR MVFR AND GRADUALLY
SCATTER AND LIFT BEHIND.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON FRIDAY CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  80  55  79 /  20  90  30   5 
ATLANTA         67  76  56  77 /  20  90  20   0 
BLAIRSVILLE     63  72  49  72 /  50 100  20   5 
CARTERSVILLE    65  77  50  75 /  40 100  20   5 
COLUMBUS        67  82  62  80 /  10  80  60  10 
GAINESVILLE     64  76  54  76 /  30 100  20   5 
MACON           65  85  61  79 /  20  60  60  20 
ROME            65  75  49  75 /  60 100  20   5 
PEACHTREE CITY  64  78  54  78 /  20  90  30   0 
VIDALIA         67  85  67  80 /   5  50  60  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...BAKER