808 FXUS62 KFFC 100007 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 807 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ ..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO LARGELY BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OR NORTHERN GEORGIA. FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HI-RES MODELED REFLECTIVITY PUSHING THE LINE OF CONVECTION INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA BETWEEN 7-8AM. HAVE QUICKLY RAMPED UP POPS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF THUNDER FROM NORTHWEST GEORGIA INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BY MID DAY...AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID AFTERNOON. CHANCES DO TAPER OFF INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY. CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. SPC DOES HAVE GEORGIA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON...TO LAWRENCEVILLE...TO HARTWELL. NORTH OF THIS LINE THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. MODELED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE LIMITED. EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHORT TERM FORECAST TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GIVE RECORDS A RUN FOR THEIR MONEY. MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY MEET OR EXCEED THE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT ATL AND AHN /SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE/. THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS RUNNING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING. 31 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AMAZING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SPOILED ON MONDAY AS APPROACHING BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHERN STREAM OVER SRN ROCKIES BRINGS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO THE MID SOUTH. SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGGED BY 12Z MED RANGE MODELS. LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS FOR WED DUE TO SMALL SCALE OF SECOND WAVE. MUCH LARGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALSO PROGGED TO DIG SHARPLY INTO THE PLAINS WED AND EVEN DEVELOPING CLOSED UPR LOW ON THURS OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DRAMATICALLY COOLER AIR. IF LATER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A ROUND OF STORMS FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SNELSON PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT THU APR 9 2015/ MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OCCUR FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HAVE THEREFORE BROAD BRUSHED POPS NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. FOR THIS WEEKEND THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN AS THE H5 LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE GET INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. 17 && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 04-09 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 89 1919 48 2003 67 1999 32 2000 1972 KATL 86 2011 47 1899 68 1999 32 2000 1995 1896 KCSG 89 1978 56 1989 70 1999 34 2000 KMCN 91 1978 53 1916 69 1999 32 2000 1899 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING CU FIELD AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT AND APPROACHING FRONT FRIDAY WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS SLIGHTLY BEFORE AND ACCOMPANYING -TS/SHRA. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA NEAR 17-21Z FRIDAY FOR KATL AND NEARBY SITES...THEN SLIGHTLY LATER FOR OTHER SITES. CAN SEE VRB10G20KT WINDS OR HIGHER WITH STORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS INITIALLY 7-10 KTS SW...THEN 4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT AND 8-10 KTS DURING DAY BECOMING WEST TO NW LATE IN THE PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR MVFR AND GRADUALLY SCATTER AND LIFT BEHIND. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON FRIDAY CIGS. HIGH ON ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 66 80 55 79 / 20 90 30 5 ATLANTA 67 76 56 77 / 20 90 20 0 BLAIRSVILLE 63 72 49 72 / 50 100 20 5 CARTERSVILLE 65 77 50 75 / 40 100 20 5 COLUMBUS 67 82 62 80 / 10 80 60 10 GAINESVILLE 64 76 54 76 / 30 100 20 5 MACON 65 85 61 79 / 20 60 60 20 ROME 65 75 49 75 / 60 100 20 5 PEACHTREE CITY 64 78 54 78 / 20 90 30 0 VIDALIA 67 85 67 80 / 5 50 60 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM....SNELSON AVIATION...BAKER