396 
FXUS62 KTAE 161027
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
627 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period. A sea breeze will shift the wind to
the W and SW at ECP near 10 knots during the mid afternoon. Some
brief morning fog is possible at TLH near the end of the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
High pressure will be the dominant feature today with mostly
sunny skies and a dry airmass in place. Afternoon high
temperatures will be above normal and reach the low to mid 80s
across the area. The record high for today at Tallahassee is 87,
and we are expecting to come close to that.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place into
at least Tuesday before weakening ahead of the next system
approaching the area on Wednesday. The ridging in place on
Tuesday will allow for another day of very warm temperatures,
possibly in the upper 80s across the region. The only potential
issue could be increasing upper level cloudiness late in the day,
but in any event, it will be unseasonably warm through Wednesday
with records highs being threatened on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement that the next
southern stream impulse will move to the north of the region
Thursday and Friday as a weak surface frontal boundary approaches
from the north. Rain chances will be greatest across the northern
portion of the area through Friday before lower end chances return
early in the weekend. 

The 16/00z model set seems to be converging to a solution offered
by the 15/00z GFS yesterday which showed a developing surface low
across the Western Gulf late Saturday in response to another
approaching southern stream impulse. Given the similarity between
the Euro and GFS this cycle, it seems prudent to increase PoPs to
the 40 to 50 percent range Saturday night and into Sunday. As this
system is likely to be fairly progressive, drier but cooler
conditions will arrive by the first of next week with temperatures
possibly being a few degrees below climatology for Monday.


.Marine...
Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for the next
several days. Expect some slight enhancements near the coast today
through Wednesday with the afternoon sea breeze.


.Fire Weather...
Relatively low dispersion values are expected this afternoon, 
especially across southern Georgia, due to light transport winds. In 
addition, relative humidity will approach critical values in 
southern Georgia this afternoon as drier air moves in, but winds 
will not be sufficient for red flag criteria. Higher dispersions and 
relative humidity values are expected for Tuesday afternoon.


.Hydrology...
No rain is expected through the short term period. Two rain events
though are in the long term forecast. The first one on Thursday-
Friday should feature rainfall amounts up to an inch across the
northern zones. The system on Saturday night into Sunday could be
a little more significant with the potential for more widespread
moderate rainfall.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  52  87  61  82 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Panama City   77  60  82  62  77 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Dothan        82  55  85  60  77 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Albany        83  50  86  59  76 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Valdosta      84  51  87  60  80 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Cross City    85  53  85  59  81 /   0   0   0  10  10 
Apalachicola  80  60  77  62  75 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY