396 FXUS62 KTAE 161027 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 627 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2015 .Aviation... [Through 12Z Tuesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A sea breeze will shift the wind to the W and SW at ECP near 10 knots during the mid afternoon. Some brief morning fog is possible at TLH near the end of the period. && .Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]... .Near Term [Through Today]... High pressure will be the dominant feature today with mostly sunny skies and a dry airmass in place. Afternoon high temperatures will be above normal and reach the low to mid 80s across the area. The record high for today at Tallahassee is 87, and we are expecting to come close to that. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place into at least Tuesday before weakening ahead of the next system approaching the area on Wednesday. The ridging in place on Tuesday will allow for another day of very warm temperatures, possibly in the upper 80s across the region. The only potential issue could be increasing upper level cloudiness late in the day, but in any event, it will be unseasonably warm through Wednesday with records highs being threatened on Tuesday. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... Model guidance continues to be in good agreement that the next southern stream impulse will move to the north of the region Thursday and Friday as a weak surface frontal boundary approaches from the north. Rain chances will be greatest across the northern portion of the area through Friday before lower end chances return early in the weekend. The 16/00z model set seems to be converging to a solution offered by the 15/00z GFS yesterday which showed a developing surface low across the Western Gulf late Saturday in response to another approaching southern stream impulse. Given the similarity between the Euro and GFS this cycle, it seems prudent to increase PoPs to the 40 to 50 percent range Saturday night and into Sunday. As this system is likely to be fairly progressive, drier but cooler conditions will arrive by the first of next week with temperatures possibly being a few degrees below climatology for Monday. .Marine... Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days. Expect some slight enhancements near the coast today through Wednesday with the afternoon sea breeze. .Fire Weather... Relatively low dispersion values are expected this afternoon, especially across southern Georgia, due to light transport winds. In addition, relative humidity will approach critical values in southern Georgia this afternoon as drier air moves in, but winds will not be sufficient for red flag criteria. Higher dispersions and relative humidity values are expected for Tuesday afternoon. .Hydrology... No rain is expected through the short term period. Two rain events though are in the long term forecast. The first one on Thursday- Friday should feature rainfall amounts up to an inch across the northern zones. The system on Saturday night into Sunday could be a little more significant with the potential for more widespread moderate rainfall. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 86 52 87 61 82 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 77 60 82 62 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 Dothan 82 55 85 60 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 Albany 83 50 86 59 76 / 0 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 84 51 87 60 80 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 85 53 85 59 81 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 80 60 77 62 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...DVD MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY