615 
FXUS62 KFFC 081917
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
217 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT AFD TIME... 
WHICH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP BASED ON CURRENT 
TRENDS AND HIRES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE...BUT STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE 
TO LIKELY POPS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA NOT LONG AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCING 
PRECIP ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTA SOUTH MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY 
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BOTH NAM AND GFS 
WANTING TO CREEP IN BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE 
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AS USUAL THE 
NAM IS AT THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. WITH THIS AND SPC DAY2 
OUTLOOK PUTTING GENERALLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 
INTO GENERAL THUNDER...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BETWEEN 18Z 
MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY. SHEAR TOO LOW TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG 
STORMS AT THIS TIME BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE 
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND SIMILAR TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE 
AREA BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT 
DECREASE IN LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS 
APPROACHING FREEZING /BUT ALL PRECIP WILL BE MOVED OUT SO NO 
CONCERNS THERE/.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS
CURRENT TRENDS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST MODELS.
DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES BASED
OFF NEW MODEL VALUES AND SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TO
BE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS INCLUDED BELOW...

31

/ISSUED 413 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015/ 
PRECIP COMES TO AN END JUT AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GETTING
STARTED. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT FROM EXITING SYSTEM BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING
THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT ONLY LOOKING FOR INCREASED CLOUDS.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE DRY COLD
FRONT KEEPING THINGS PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR TO START THE PERIOD BUT WITH APPROACHING LOW VFR CLOUDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND IFR
BY 09-12Z /CLOSER TO 09Z FOR METRO TAFS/. SOME HINTS AT LIFR CIGS
BUT HAVE KEPT OVC007 FOR NOW. -SHRA MOVES IN BY SUNRISE AND
LINGERS THROUGH AROUND 18Z FOR THE METRO TAFS WHEN CIGS SHOULD
LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR ATL. WINDS SW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...
AROUND OR JUST OVER 5KT THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING TO BELOW 5KT MOST
SITES TONIGHT AND PICKING BACK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO W OR WNW FOR ATL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY.
MEDIUM ON LOWER BOUND OF CIGS/VSBY.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  63  38  58 /  50  60   5   0 
ATLANTA         50  61  37  55 /  60  70   5   0 
BLAIRSVILLE     47  55  32  52 /  70  50   5   0 
CARTERSVILLE    49  61  33  52 /  60  60   5   0 
COLUMBUS        50  65  38  58 /  40  60   5   0 
GAINESVILLE     48  59  36  54 /  50  60   5   0 
MACON           48  64  39  59 /  40  60  20   0 
ROME            50  60  32  53 /  60  50   5   0 
PEACHTREE CITY  48  63  34  56 /  60  70   5   0 
VIDALIA         48  66  44  60 /  10  60  30   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...TDP