615 FXUS62 KFFC 081917 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 217 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SHORTWAVE MOVING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT AFD TIME... WHICH WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HIRES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE...BUT STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ENHANCING PRECIP ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTA SOUTH MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BOTH NAM AND GFS WANTING TO CREEP IN BETWEEN 200-500 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND AS USUAL THE NAM IS AT THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. WITH THIS AND SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK PUTTING GENERALLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO GENERAL THUNDER...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY. SHEAR TOO LOW TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG STORMS AT THIS TIME BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND SIMILAR TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS APPROACHING FREEZING /BUT ALL PRECIP WILL BE MOVED OUT SO NO CONCERNS THERE/. TDP .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS CURRENT TRENDS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST MODELS. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES BASED OFF NEW MODEL VALUES AND SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TO BE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS STILL APPLICABLE AND IS INCLUDED BELOW... 31 /ISSUED 413 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2015/ PRECIP COMES TO AN END JUT AS THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS GETTING STARTED. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT FROM EXITING SYSTEM BUT THE RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING THINGS DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT ONLY LOOKING FOR INCREASED CLOUDS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE DRY COLD FRONT KEEPING THINGS PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 01 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR TO START THE PERIOD BUT WITH APPROACHING LOW VFR CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND IFR BY 09-12Z /CLOSER TO 09Z FOR METRO TAFS/. SOME HINTS AT LIFR CIGS BUT HAVE KEPT OVC007 FOR NOW. -SHRA MOVES IN BY SUNRISE AND LINGERS THROUGH AROUND 18Z FOR THE METRO TAFS WHEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR FOR ATL. WINDS SW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD... AROUND OR JUST OVER 5KT THIS AFTERNOON LOWERING TO BELOW 5KT MOST SITES TONIGHT AND PICKING BACK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO W OR WNW FOR ATL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM-HIGH ON TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY. MEDIUM ON LOWER BOUND OF CIGS/VSBY. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. TDP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 49 63 38 58 / 50 60 5 0 ATLANTA 50 61 37 55 / 60 70 5 0 BLAIRSVILLE 47 55 32 52 / 70 50 5 0 CARTERSVILLE 49 61 33 52 / 60 60 5 0 COLUMBUS 50 65 38 58 / 40 60 5 0 GAINESVILLE 48 59 36 54 / 50 60 5 0 MACON 48 64 39 59 / 40 60 20 0 ROME 50 60 32 53 / 60 50 5 0 PEACHTREE CITY 48 63 34 56 / 60 70 5 0 VIDALIA 48 66 44 60 / 10 60 30 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDP LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...TDP