583 
FXUS64 KOUN 210533
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH SURFACE HUMIDITIES RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR AT KPNC.
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES OF FURTHER
OCCURRENCES LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CONTINUING INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. RA AND SN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/ 

UPDATE...
ADDED PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT EAST OF A ENID TO GUTHRIE
TO ADA TO ATOKA LINE.

DISCUSSION...
FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING A BIT IN THE LOCATIONS ABOVE WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW...UNDER 3 DEGREES...AND
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DO
NOT THINK FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL GET VERY DENSE OR CAUSE ANY
SIGNFICANT PROBLEMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WEST TO EAST. DO NOT THINK
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
IT MAY BE A VERY CLOSE CALL DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET 
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES NEARLY ANYWHERE SOUTH
OF AN ALVA TO STILLWATER LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST. LATEST 00Z
NAM12 APPEARS TO BE TOO WET. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR...BUT NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
BRISK NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND GENERALLY LIGHT
N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN...AND TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE
NE. LOWER CLOUDS...PROBABLY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT...WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO W OK TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ANY SPRINKLES/RAIN IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS AFTN IS
WINDING DOWN. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES INTO NW/WEST CENTRAL OK LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THEN PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM TEXAS INTO SW PARTS
OF THE FA AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS IS ALL DUE TO A SHORTWAVE... CURRENTLY ALONG THE CA COAST...
MOVING EAST AND PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS STILL SHOW THAT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MUCH
OF THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER... THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA... ESPECIALLY IF A LOCATION RECEIVES A
HEAVY ENOUGH BURST OF SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  51  33  45 /   0  10  60  30 
HOBART OK         33  49  32  41 /   0  10  70  40 
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  55  35  41 /   0   0  80  60 
GAGE OK           29  43  26  39 /   0  50  60  20 
PONCA CITY OK     30  50  28  46 /   0  10  20  10 
DURANT OK         36  57  37  44 /   0   0  70  70 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23