583 FXUS64 KOUN 210533 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.... && .AVIATION... HIGH SURFACE HUMIDITIES RESULTED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BR AT KPNC. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES OF FURTHER OCCURRENCES LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUING INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. RA AND SN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/ UPDATE... ADDED PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG TONIGHT EAST OF A ENID TO GUTHRIE TO ADA TO ATOKA LINE. DISCUSSION... FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING A BIT IN THE LOCATIONS ABOVE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW...UNDER 3 DEGREES...AND WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RELATIVELY LIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DO NOT THINK FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL GET VERY DENSE OR CAUSE ANY SIGNFICANT PROBLEMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WEST TO EAST. DO NOT THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE 6 AM WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... IT MAY BE A VERY CLOSE CALL DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES NEARLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF AN ALVA TO STILLWATER LINE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST. LATEST 00Z NAM12 APPEARS TO BE TOO WET. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR...BUT NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.... AVIATION... BRISK NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND GENERALLY LIGHT N WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN...AND TURN ONCE AGAIN TO THE NE. LOWER CLOUDS...PROBABLY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FT...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO W OK TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANY SPRINKLES/RAIN IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS AFTN IS WINDING DOWN. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO NW/WEST CENTRAL OK LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THEN PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM TEXAS INTO SW PARTS OF THE FA AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A SHORTWAVE... CURRENTLY ALONG THE CA COAST... MOVING EAST AND PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS STILL SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MUCH OF THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER... THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA... ESPECIALLY IF A LOCATION RECEIVES A HEAVY ENOUGH BURST OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 35 51 33 45 / 0 10 60 30 HOBART OK 33 49 32 41 / 0 10 70 40 WICHITA FALLS TX 36 55 35 41 / 0 0 80 60 GAGE OK 29 43 26 39 / 0 50 60 20 PONCA CITY OK 30 50 28 46 / 0 10 20 10 DURANT OK 36 57 37 44 / 0 0 70 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 17/23/23