108 
FXUS64 KLIX 110531
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014/ 

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LAYERS OF LOWERING HIGH
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BLOCK OUT MOST OF THE
STARS AND MOONLIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT FALL AS MUCH AS EARLIER
FORECAST...SO RAISED THE LOWS ABOUT TWO DEGREES WHICH MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS. A FEW OF THE EASTERN AREAS DROPPED A BIT
FASTER BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASED...BUT THEY HAVE LEVELED OFF IN
THE LAST HOUR. FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH 
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH 
CLOUDS HAVE TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST BUT SLOWLY ERODE THE 
FURTHER EAST THEY PUSH. 

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET 
UP OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...A 
RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND AN APPROACHING L/W TROUGH 
OVER THE ERN PAC. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT SLOW WITH THE 
MID LVL RIDGE NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY IN 
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EVEN MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS 
WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY AND COOL SIDE. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO 
SLOWLY MODERATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK UP AROUND 
TO JUST ABV NORMAL (MID 60S TO NEAR 70) AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL (LOWER 
TO MID 40S). NO RAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE 
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN 
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION MON/TUE 
NEXT WEEK BUT BOTH ALSO AGREE THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE FAIRLY 
MINIMAL. LATEST TRENDS HAS THE DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE DESERT 
SW LIFTING FURTHER TO OUR NORTH WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINING 
NORTH OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND IT 
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY ONLY SEE SCT LIGHT SHRA LATE MON AND MAINLY MON 
NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO PULL MENTION OF TSRA AS MDLS ARE SUGGESTING 
VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...EVEN THE SHOWALTERS IS 
POSITIVE THE ENTIRE TIME. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF DECENT 
DYNAMICS AND TSRA MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO COME BY. COOLER AND DRIER 
AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUE. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME 
INVADING HIGH CLOUDS BASED AROUND 14KFT. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZINESS 
PRESENT DUE TO SMOKE FROM WOOD FIRES PREVALENT ACROSS THE LARGER 
AREA. 24/RR

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND WINDS HAVE BACKED 
OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH 
PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE 
WEEK AND WEEKEND. LOOK FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS 12 KTS OR LESS AND 
SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN. 
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
                   
          
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED  
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY 
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR               
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL          
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  10 
BTR  40  62  40  65 /   0   0  10  10 
ASD  38  61  39  63 /   0   0   0  10 
MSY  45  61  44  63 /   0   0   0  10 
GPT  38  60  40  61 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  34  59  37  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$