108 FXUS64 KLIX 110531 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1131 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014/ UPDATE... INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LAYERS OF LOWERING HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS...WILL LIKELY BLOCK OUT MOST OF THE STARS AND MOONLIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT FALL AS MUCH AS EARLIER FORECAST...SO RAISED THE LOWS ABOUT TWO DEGREES WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS. A FEW OF THE EASTERN AREAS DROPPED A BIT FASTER BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASED...BUT THEY HAVE LEVELED OFF IN THE LAST HOUR. FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. 22/TD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST WED DEC 10 2014/ SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE TRIED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST BUT SLOWLY ERODE THE FURTHER EAST THEY PUSH. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND AN APPROACHING L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN PAC. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE BUT SLOW WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE REGION UNTIL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EVEN MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE DRY AND COOL SIDE. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK UP AROUND TO JUST ABV NORMAL (MID 60S TO NEAR 70) AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL (LOWER TO MID 40S). NO RAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. /CAB/ LONG TERM...OVERALL MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION MON/TUE NEXT WEEK BUT BOTH ALSO AGREE THAT THE IMPACTS WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. LATEST TRENDS HAS THE DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SW LIFTING FURTHER TO OUR NORTH WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY ONLY SEE SCT LIGHT SHRA LATE MON AND MAINLY MON NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO PULL MENTION OF TSRA AS MDLS ARE SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...EVEN THE SHOWALTERS IS POSITIVE THE ENTIRE TIME. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF DECENT DYNAMICS AND TSRA MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO COME BY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUE. /CAB/ AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME INVADING HIGH CLOUDS BASED AROUND 14KFT. THERE MAY BE SOME HAZINESS PRESENT DUE TO SMOKE FROM WOOD FIRES PREVALENT ACROSS THE LARGER AREA. 24/RR MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AND WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. LOOK FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS 12 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /CAB/ DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 37 59 38 61 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 40 62 40 65 / 0 0 10 10 ASD 38 61 39 63 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 45 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 38 60 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 34 59 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$