521 
FXUS63 KFGF 161735
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

WILL NEED TO RAISE MAX TEMPS WHERE SKY IS CURRENTLY
CLEAR...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS ARE NOW WESTERLY (MIXING A BIT
DEEPER THAN EXPECTED). RAISED POPS WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS
PIVOTING NORTHWARD...BUT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND THEN
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW (AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING). WINDS ARE BEHAVING AS
EXPECTED...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD IN ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LASTING
LESS THAN AN HOUR. MANY SITES WILL BE CLOSE...BUT 925MB WINDS DO
NOT INCREASE UNTIL THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM CANADA...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB (WITH 925MB WIND
SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO 850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC
PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN). THIS WILL
MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE WEAKER.
LIKELY ANOTHER SCENARIO OF BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE
INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH MOSTLY NEAR ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN -RA CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

MODELS ALL TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF SFC/UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA TODAY. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK. UPSTREAM PCPN ACROSS MT PRETTY SPOTTY SO AM HESITANT TO
INCREASE POPS TOO MUCH AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA CLOSEST TO H7 LOW TRACK. WILL BE
STARTING OUT VERY MILD THIS AM HOWEVER WARMING LIKELY TO BE EARLY
AS STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM DVL BASIN INTO THE VALLEY VALLEY REGION
BY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 

UPPER LOW PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS N MN TONIGHT TO THE WESTERN TIP
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING. EXPECT WRAP AROUND SHRA TO CONTINUE
ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF THE FA. CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER. AS LOW
PUSHES EAST TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS. 

ANY -RA SHOULD DIMINISH FROM VALLEY EASTWARD FRIDAY AM AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WELL BLO AVERAGE. 

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL SEE MINIMUMS BACK CLOSER TO FREEZING. 

HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY FOR QUIET BUT COOL CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BLO AVERAGE. 

RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT SO MINIMUMS NOT
AS COOL. 

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOLNS AS NW 
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO 500MB RIDGE BY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN US. 
AFTER A CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING A DRY 
WEEK IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR 
SUNDAY THEN INTO THE 60S...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY...IF NOT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

WIND SHIFT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 1730Z FCST TO CONT MOVING EAST
AT 20 KTS PASSING KTVF 19Z AND KBJI 22Z. GUSTS 30KTS PSL WITHIN
1-2 HOURS FROPA...THEN WINDS DIMINISH. EXP SPEEDS TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS GTR 30KTS AFT 00Z. VCSH DVL-GFK THROUGH 00Z AND KTVF AFT 21Z
VFR CIGS FCST EXCEPT BCMG MVFR DVL AREA AFT 00Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...EWENS