521 FXUS63 KFGF 161735 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 WILL NEED TO RAISE MAX TEMPS WHERE SKY IS CURRENTLY CLEAR...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS ARE NOW WESTERLY (MIXING A BIT DEEPER THAN EXPECTED). RAISED POPS WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS PIVOTING NORTHWARD...BUT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW (AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING). WINDS ARE BEHAVING AS EXPECTED...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD IN ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LASTING LESS THAN AN HOUR. MANY SITES WILL BE CLOSE...BUT 925MB WINDS DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB (WITH 925MB WIND SPEEDS @40-45 KNOTS)...AND MIXING UP TO 850MB...ALONG WITH A SFC PRESSURE RISE 4-5MB/3-HR (ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN). THIS WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER SUNSET...SO MIXING POTENTIAL WILL BE WEAKER. LIKELY ANOTHER SCENARIO OF BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH MOSTLY NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN -RA CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST. MODELS ALL TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF SFC/UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA TODAY. POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING FARTHER SOUTH TRACK. UPSTREAM PCPN ACROSS MT PRETTY SPOTTY SO AM HESITANT TO INCREASE POPS TOO MUCH AT THIS POINT. BEST POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA CLOSEST TO H7 LOW TRACK. WILL BE STARTING OUT VERY MILD THIS AM HOWEVER WARMING LIKELY TO BE EARLY AS STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM DVL BASIN INTO THE VALLEY VALLEY REGION BY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. UPPER LOW PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS N MN TONIGHT TO THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING. EXPECT WRAP AROUND SHRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS ROUGHLY NE HALF OF THE FA. CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET COLD ADVECTION BUT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER. AS LOW PUSHES EAST TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY LIMITS. ANY -RA SHOULD DIMINISH FROM VALLEY EASTWARD FRIDAY AM AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WELL BLO AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL SEE MINIMUMS BACK CLOSER TO FREEZING. HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY FOR QUIET BUT COOL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BLO AVERAGE. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT SO MINIMUMS NOT AS COOL. SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOLNS AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO 500MB RIDGE BY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN US. AFTER A CHC FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING A DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE PERSISTS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THEN INTO THE 60S...ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IF NOT LONGER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 WIND SHIFT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 1730Z FCST TO CONT MOVING EAST AT 20 KTS PASSING KTVF 19Z AND KBJI 22Z. GUSTS 30KTS PSL WITHIN 1-2 HOURS FROPA...THEN WINDS DIMINISH. EXP SPEEDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS GTR 30KTS AFT 00Z. VCSH DVL-GFK THROUGH 00Z AND KTVF AFT 21Z VFR CIGS FCST EXCEPT BCMG MVFR DVL AREA AFT 00Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...VOELKER LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER AVIATION...EWENS