621 
FXUS64 KCRP 260515
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1215 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS SHRA'S DVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD WEST THROUGH FRI MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL TROF
COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. PREVAILING CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH 10Z THEN PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA'S
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI. HAVE TEMPO'S AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR TIME
FRAMES THAT LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
LULL BY LATE FRI EVENING BUT KEPT VCSH INTO FRI EVENING ALONG WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...WATER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS AT BOB HALL PIER HAVE
REACHED 2 FEET NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR KLEBURG AND NUECES COUNTY. WATER LEVELS WILL
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TIDE RECEDES AND RISE
AGAIN UNTIL HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CDT. UPDATED THE HWO AND
ZFP PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST AS A SFC TROUGH/ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE GULF. EXPECT PREDOMIANTE MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTN AS SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MOVES/DEVELOPS WESTWARD. A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DRG THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY
NORTHEAST/NORTH WEAK SFC WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING EAST DRG THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...BASED ON WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM. UPDATED THE CORRESPONDING TEXT
PRODUCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THIS. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT
WINDS WOULD NOT REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WORTH MENTIONING THAT TIDES HAVE BEEN A FEW
INCHES BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA AT BOB HALL PIER FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CALLED PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE
AND THEY RELAYED THAT WHILE WATER LEVELS WERE HIGH...THEY WERE
NOT REACHING THE DUNES. AS TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...WILL PROBABLY
NOT NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  82  72  85  71  /  70  70  50  50  20 
VICTORIA          71  84  70  85  68  /  60  60  30  30  20 
LAREDO            72  84  72  86  70  /  20  70  70  40  20 
ALICE             71  83  71  86  70  /  60  70  30  40  10 
ROCKPORT          74  84  74  84  74  /  70  70  50  50  30 
COTULLA           70  84  69  86  68  /  20  70  70  20  10 
KINGSVILLE        72  83  72  86  71  /  60  70  40  50  20 
NAVY CORPUS       75  83  76  84  75  /  70  70  50  50  30 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION