621 FXUS64 KCRP 260515 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1215 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS SHRA'S DVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH FRI MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A COASTAL TROF COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. PREVAILING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS THROUGH 10Z THEN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA'S THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI. HAVE TEMPO'S AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR TIME FRAMES THAT LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL BY LATE FRI EVENING BUT KEPT VCSH INTO FRI EVENING ALONG WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ DISCUSSION...WATER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS AT BOB HALL PIER HAVE REACHED 2 FEET NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KLEBURG AND NUECES COUNTY. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TIDE RECEDES AND RISE AGAIN UNTIL HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM CDT. UPDATED THE HWO AND ZFP PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST AS A SFC TROUGH/ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE GULF. EXPECT PREDOMIANTE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN AS SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVES/DEVELOPS WESTWARD. A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY NORTHEAST/NORTH WEAK SFC WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMING EAST DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ DISCUSSION...BASED ON WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM. UPDATED THE CORRESPONDING TEXT PRODUCTS TO GO ALONG WITH THIS. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT WINDS WOULD NOT REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WORTH MENTIONING THAT TIDES HAVE BEEN A FEW INCHES BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA AT BOB HALL PIER FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. CALLED PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE AND THEY RELAYED THAT WHILE WATER LEVELS WERE HIGH...THEY WERE NOT REACHING THE DUNES. AS TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO RECEDE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...WILL PROBABLY NOT NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 73 82 72 85 71 / 70 70 50 50 20 VICTORIA 71 84 70 85 68 / 60 60 30 30 20 LAREDO 72 84 72 86 70 / 20 70 70 40 20 ALICE 71 83 71 86 70 / 60 70 30 40 10 ROCKPORT 74 84 74 84 74 / 70 70 50 50 30 COTULLA 70 84 69 86 68 / 20 70 70 20 10 KINGSVILLE 72 83 72 86 71 / 60 70 40 50 20 NAVY CORPUS 75 83 76 84 75 / 70 70 50 50 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION