002 
FXUS64 KHGX 260455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH T/TD SPREADS OF 2-8 DEGREES (HIGHER
NORTH AND CLOSER AT THE COAST) ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
THE AREA AND MID LEVEL DECKS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EASTERLY LL
FLOW WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW BUT SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG AS IT WAS
TODAY. LIFT WHAT LITTLE THERE IS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING IN
THE SOUTHWEST AREAS AND BY AFTERNOON MAY REACH LBX AND POSSIBLY
GLS. 
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST BASICALLY
AS IS WITH THE HIGHER OVERNIGHT POPS IN AND AROUND THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST AREAS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW.  42 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ 

AVIATION...

OUTFLOW FROM GULF STORMS SPREADING A FEW -SHRA INTO THE AREAS
EAST OF THE IAH/HOU/GLS TERMINALS WHILE STORMS OFFSHORE CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT THAT THESE SHRA INLAND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN
THE COMING HOUR. SMALL MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOWING UP BETWEEN
IAH/VCT AND MAY HELP TO FOCUS SHRA/TSRA IN THE GULF WATERS SOUTH
OF PSX THIS EVENING AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION WITH EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEATING (LIMITED BY
HIGH CLOUD COVER) SHOULD HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 4000-5000
SCT/BKN DECK BY LATE MORNING. WILL ADD VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT LBX/GLS BUT DON'T EXPECT SHRA TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER
INLAND.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE DEFINED BY AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COAST QUITE SLOWLY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE MADE AN INITIAL PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST AND INLAND
BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BACK OVER THE GULF OFF THE COAST OF SABINE
RIVER. CONVECTION EXTENDS THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS TOWARDS THE
LOWER TX COAST AND MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INLAND LATER
TODAY...OR AT LEAST THE HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS.
WILL STILL CARRY SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST BUT DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX.

TOMORROW RAIN CHANCES SHIFT WEST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LOW OVER W TX WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER C TX AND WESTERN
PARTS OF SE TX. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NE OUT OF
THE AREA SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST WITH THE
WAVE AS WELL SO EXPECT PRECIP WATER VALUES TO DROP FROM AROUND 2
INCHES TO 1.7 INCHES SAT/SUN. OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION SUN/MON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES.
LOOK FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO NOT RETURN UNTIL MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH TUE FURTHER
SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION. FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
UNTIL WED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. EXTENDED FORECAST HAS ITS
TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY WITH GFS/ECMWF OFFERING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS TO HOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS MEANS THAT EITHER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA THE END OF NEXT WEEK LIKE THE ECMWF OR THERE WILL BE NO
FRONT AT ALL PER THE GFS.

OVERALL THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ANY OF THE STRONGER
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
ELEVATED TIDES AND POSSIBLY SOME RIP CURRENTS ON GULF FACING
BEACHES.

39

MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE HAS ENHANCED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT....POSSIBLY SUBSIDING SOME LATE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
TIGHTENING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SCEC
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD RELAX AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIDES ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  85  68  87  67 /  10  30  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  86  68  87  68 /  20  20  10  20  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  84  75  84  75 /  20  30  20  30  30 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...45