002 FXUS64 KHGX 260455 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1155 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014 .AVIATION... VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH T/TD SPREADS OF 2-8 DEGREES (HIGHER NORTH AND CLOSER AT THE COAST) ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA AND MID LEVEL DECKS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. EASTERLY LL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW BUT SHOULDN'T BE AS STRONG AS IT WAS TODAY. LIFT WHAT LITTLE THERE IS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AREAS AND BY AFTERNOON MAY REACH LBX AND POSSIBLY GLS. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST BASICALLY AS IS WITH THE HIGHER OVERNIGHT POPS IN AND AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW. 42 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ AVIATION... OUTFLOW FROM GULF STORMS SPREADING A FEW -SHRA INTO THE AREAS EAST OF THE IAH/HOU/GLS TERMINALS WHILE STORMS OFFSHORE CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT THAT THESE SHRA INLAND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HOUR. SMALL MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOWING UP BETWEEN IAH/VCT AND MAY HELP TO FOCUS SHRA/TSRA IN THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF PSX THIS EVENING AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HEATING (LIMITED BY HIGH CLOUD COVER) SHOULD HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 4000-5000 SCT/BKN DECK BY LATE MORNING. WILL ADD VCSH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT LBX/GLS BUT DON'T EXPECT SHRA TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND. 45 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE DEFINED BY AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COAST QUITE SLOWLY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MADE AN INITIAL PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST AND INLAND BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR RE- DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BACK OVER THE GULF OFF THE COAST OF SABINE RIVER. CONVECTION EXTENDS THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COAST AND MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY...OR AT LEAST THE HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL CARRY SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX. TOMORROW RAIN CHANCES SHIFT WEST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LOW OVER W TX WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER C TX AND WESTERN PARTS OF SE TX. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES NE OUT OF THE AREA SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST WITH THE WAVE AS WELL SO EXPECT PRECIP WATER VALUES TO DROP FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TO 1.7 INCHES SAT/SUN. OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION SUN/MON WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES. LOOK FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO NOT RETURN UNTIL MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH TUE FURTHER SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION. FORECAST WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT UNTIL WED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. EXTENDED FORECAST HAS ITS TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY WITH GFS/ECMWF OFFERING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO HOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS MEANS THAT EITHER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THE END OF NEXT WEEK LIKE THE ECMWF OR THERE WILL BE NO FRONT AT ALL PER THE GFS. OVERALL THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD ANY OF THE STRONGER TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT ELEVATED TIDES AND POSSIBLY SOME RIP CURRENTS ON GULF FACING BEACHES. 39 MARINE... WILL MAINTAIN AN SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OFFSHORE HAS ENHANCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOME NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT....POSSIBLY SUBSIDING SOME LATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TIGHTENING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SCEC POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD RELAX AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS DEVIATION FROM NORMAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 85 68 87 67 / 10 30 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 69 86 68 87 68 / 20 20 10 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 75 84 75 84 75 / 20 30 20 30 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...45