717 
FXUS64 KCRP 251143 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING. LOW CLOUD
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF
VCT AND WEST OF LRD. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS BY 14Z AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS BY 18Z WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT REACH THE LAREDO AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL EXIST IN AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED 
IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING.
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE
TONIGHT AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR ALI/CRP BY 08Z WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT WAS
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...NOW MOVING WESTWARD AS A 
SHARP TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS
MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. EXPECT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COAHUILA. AS THIS JET STREAK MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DEPICT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FIELD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE AS THIS JET STREAK IMPACTS
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE BOUNDARY/INCREASED
MOISTURE. A SPEED CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE ANCHORED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
INTO THE REGION IS NOT CERTAIN BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING
TO 2.2 INCHES. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE UPPER
JET STREAK AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND 50 PERCENT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
 

MARINE/TIDES...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST
OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SEAS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SCEC OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE HIGH RISK CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TIDE
LEVELS DID NOT REACH 1.5 FEET MSL WITH THE LATEST HIGH TIDE
AND NOW FALLING TOWARD LOW TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE MAY SEE TIDE
LEVELS APPROACHING 1.7 FEET AT BOB HALL PIER THIS AFTERNOON. 
THIS COULD LEAD TO WATER APPROACHING THE DUNES ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL 
BE IN PLACE AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE (PWAT FORECAST STILL ABOVE 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY)...WILL
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS A BIT LOWER
THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL 40 TO 50 POPS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH LOWER
POPS EASTWARD. IN GENERAL...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP FORECAST
ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START TO SEE A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS ENERGY OF THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME ENERGY LINGERS...WITH LOWER MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT A 20 POP FOR EASTERN AREAS...BUT THINK
THINGS WILL REALLY BE WINDING DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AS WELL. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO START WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND SHOULD BE A RATHER PLEASANT PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE'LL BE BACK TO AROUND 90...OR THE LOWER 90S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK AS WELL. A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT BECOME MORE ZONAL...AND GRADUALLY A BIT
SOUTH OF WEST BY WED/THUR. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK INTO
THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  73  84  70  86  /  50  60  70  40  40 
VICTORIA          86  69  84  68  86  /  50  50  50  30  30 
LAREDO            91  73  87  71  86  /  20  40  50  30  30 
ALICE             88  70  85  69  87  /  40  50  60  30  40 
ROCKPORT          86  73  84  73  85  /  50  60  70  40  40 
COTULLA           90  69  86  71  87  /  20  30  50  20  20 
KINGSVILLE        87  72  85  70  87  /  50  60  70  40  40 
NAVY CORPUS       85  74  84  75  85  /  50  60  70  40  40 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION