717 FXUS64 KCRP 251143 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 643 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING. LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF VCT AND WEST OF LRD. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS BY 14Z AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES CLOSER ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY 18Z WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY NOT REACH THE LAREDO AREA. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL EXIST IN AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED IFR VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR ALI/CRP BY 08Z WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PROVIDING MVFR VSBYS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST.. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...NOW MOVING WESTWARD AS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. EXPECT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN COAHUILA. AS THIS JET STREAK MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DEPICT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE AS THIS JET STREAK IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD ALONG THE BOUNDARY/INCREASED MOISTURE. A SPEED CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK INTO THE REGION IS NOT CERTAIN BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 2.2 INCHES. NAM/ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE UPPER JET STREAK AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR COASTAL PLAINS AND 50 PERCENT FOR THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARINE/TIDES...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SCEC OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE HIGH RISK CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TIDE LEVELS DID NOT REACH 1.5 FEET MSL WITH THE LATEST HIGH TIDE AND NOW FALLING TOWARD LOW TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE MAY SEE TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING 1.7 FEET AT BOB HALL PIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO WATER APPROACHING THE DUNES ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD...AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT FORECAST STILL ABOVE 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY)...WILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. POPS A BIT LOWER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL 40 TO 50 POPS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH LOWER POPS EASTWARD. IN GENERAL...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POP FORECAST ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START TO SEE A NOTABLE DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS ENERGY OF THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME ENERGY LINGERS...WITH LOWER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT A 20 POP FOR EASTERN AREAS...BUT THINK THINGS WILL REALLY BE WINDING DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AS WELL. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO START WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND SHOULD BE A RATHER PLEASANT PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER THE WEEKEND...WE'LL BE BACK TO AROUND 90...OR THE LOWER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS WELL. A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT BECOME MORE ZONAL...AND GRADUALLY A BIT SOUTH OF WEST BY WED/THUR. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 86 73 84 70 86 / 50 60 70 40 40 VICTORIA 86 69 84 68 86 / 50 50 50 30 30 LAREDO 91 73 87 71 86 / 20 40 50 30 30 ALICE 88 70 85 69 87 / 40 50 60 30 40 ROCKPORT 86 73 84 73 85 / 50 60 70 40 40 COTULLA 90 69 86 71 87 / 20 30 50 20 20 KINGSVILLE 87 72 85 70 87 / 50 60 70 40 40 NAVY CORPUS 85 74 84 75 85 / 50 60 70 40 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TMT/89...AVIATION