754 
FXUS63 KFGF 092008
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EFFECTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FROST POTENTIAL THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. 12Z MODELS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE
PCPN POTENTIAL UP INTO THIS FA WITH THE LOW...SO GOOD NEWS OVERALL
FOR FARMERS. IN THE LAST HOUR A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER EAST CENTRAL ND AND HAVE BEEN SLIDING EAST-NE UP TOWARD THE
KCKN AND KFSE AREA. HAVE GOTTEN A REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
THIS GROUP OF CELLS AS IT PASSED THROUGH HILLSBORO. WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AND POSSIBLE SMALL
HAIL AS THESE CELLS PASS UP THRU KBJI AND POINTS JUST NORTH OF
THERE. OTHERWISE THE AREA OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH
UP OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL SD AND WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AS HAS BEEN CONTINUITY THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO DROP EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS
IN THIS AREA. TODAYS PRODUCTS WILL GO OUT WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH
AT THE MOST TAPERING TO ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY.
LOOKING FOR STEADY WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS...SO NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY FROST. LOOKING FOR MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND PCPN TO PUSH TO THE
EAST WED LEAVING THIS FA DRY. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. THIS QUESTION WILL LINGER INTO WED NIGHT.
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL
THIN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE LANGDON TO MADDOCK
AREA SO STUCK A MENTION IN. 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THU NOW ALSO LOOKS TO STAY DRY AND COOL AS WELL AS THU NIGHT. THU
NIGHT WILL BE THE SECOND NIGHT UNDER THE HIGH SO LOOKING AT A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL. THIS TIME SELECTED THE
AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WHERE FORECASTING LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S...TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FROST. KEPT A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRI.

LONG TERM MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH UPPER WAVE EXTENDING 
ACROSS S CNTRL CANADA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HOWEVER POSITION OF SFC 
HIGH QUITE VARIABLE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS 
INDICATING DRY WX AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS MB AND CLIPS THE 
NORTHERN VALLEY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND YIELDS MORE QPF ACROSS MB/SASK 
DURING THE DAY SAT. CONSALL DOES SHOW LOW POPS OVER FAR EAST AS BOTH 
MODELS HAVE PRECIP OVER NE MN SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW POPS CONFINED 
TO FAR NE. FROM SUNDAY ON...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON NW PATTERN 
(GFS) VS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK (ECMWF). ECMWF 
ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CNTRL PLAINS LOW WRAPPING SOME PRECIP INTO 
SRN VALLEY MON WHILE GFS KEEPS PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP 
DAYS 6 AND 7 DRY AT THIS POINT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARD 
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR SLOWLY 
RISE INTO VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WHILE THERE WILL BE SCT -SHRA ACROSS 
THE AREA. SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL SEE IFR SLOWLY RISE INTO MVFR 
CAT WITH MORE WIDELY SPREAD -SHRA BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH EARLY WED AM. EXPECT FAR AND BJI TO STAY AT BEST MVFR 
THROUGH MID WED MORNING. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGHOUT TAF PDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER