754 FXUS63 KFGF 092008 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EFFECTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FROST POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. 12Z MODELS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE PCPN POTENTIAL UP INTO THIS FA WITH THE LOW...SO GOOD NEWS OVERALL FOR FARMERS. IN THE LAST HOUR A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EAST CENTRAL ND AND HAVE BEEN SLIDING EAST-NE UP TOWARD THE KCKN AND KFSE AREA. HAVE GOTTEN A REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH THIS GROUP OF CELLS AS IT PASSED THROUGH HILLSBORO. WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AS THESE CELLS PASS UP THRU KBJI AND POINTS JUST NORTH OF THERE. OTHERWISE THE AREA OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH UP OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL SD AND WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AS HAS BEEN CONTINUITY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN CHANGE WILL BE TO DROP EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA. TODAYS PRODUCTS WILL GO OUT WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH AT THE MOST TAPERING TO ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. LOOKING FOR STEADY WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS...SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FROST. LOOKING FOR MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND PCPN TO PUSH TO THE EAST WED LEAVING THIS FA DRY. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE DEGREE OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. THIS QUESTION WILL LINGER INTO WED NIGHT. THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL THIN. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE LANGDON TO MADDOCK AREA SO STUCK A MENTION IN. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 THU NOW ALSO LOOKS TO STAY DRY AND COOL AS WELL AS THU NIGHT. THU NIGHT WILL BE THE SECOND NIGHT UNDER THE HIGH SO LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL. THIS TIME SELECTED THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WHERE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FROST. KEPT A DRY FORECAST INTO FRI. LONG TERM MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH UPPER WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS S CNTRL CANADA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HOWEVER POSITION OF SFC HIGH QUITE VARIABLE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS INDICATING DRY WX AS SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS MB AND CLIPS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND YIELDS MORE QPF ACROSS MB/SASK DURING THE DAY SAT. CONSALL DOES SHOW LOW POPS OVER FAR EAST AS BOTH MODELS HAVE PRECIP OVER NE MN SAT NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW POPS CONFINED TO FAR NE. FROM SUNDAY ON...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON NW PATTERN (GFS) VS ANOTHER WAVE PUSHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK (ECMWF). ECMWF ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CNTRL PLAINS LOW WRAPPING SOME PRECIP INTO SRN VALLEY MON WHILE GFS KEEPS PRECIP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP DAYS 6 AND 7 DRY AT THIS POINT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR SLOWLY RISE INTO VFR RANGE THIS AFTN WHILE THERE WILL BE SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL SEE IFR SLOWLY RISE INTO MVFR CAT WITH MORE WIDELY SPREAD -SHRA BY LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED AM. EXPECT FAR AND BJI TO STAY AT BEST MVFR THROUGH MID WED MORNING. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TAF PDS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...GODON/SPEICHER AVIATION...SPEICHER