169 
FXUS61 KCAR 021825
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
225 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER
QUEBEC BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION. WITH A LIGHT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION EXPECT STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ANY
LINGERING LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO
TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS MAKING THERE WAY ACROSS THE 
DOWNEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BROUGHT THE BACK 
EDGE OF THE LIKELY POPS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS 
THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE 
PRECIPITATION. EVEN SO...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.

SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH EARLY 
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS 
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE 
REGION EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWERS AROUND FOR EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE 
REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 
NAM'S CAPES FOR THAT PERIOD SEEM OVERDONE (1000+ J/KG OVER NW 
MAINE), BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE 
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACTUALLY ARRIVE ON 
TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE STATE. AS 
ALWAYS, MUCH DEPENDS ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, 
BUT CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPUR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 
AROUND 80 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING BOUNDARY MEANS CONDITIONS WILL FEEL 
INCREASINGLY HUMID, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS REACH 
INTO THE MID 60S. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER 
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC, WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING 
AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. AS SUCH, WE'LL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
JUST ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH FINALLY LOOKS TO 
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, 
WITH RIDGING TO FOLLOW. THIS MEANS WE MAY FINALLY DRY OUT BY THE 
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE 
WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATER
SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 16Z-02Z
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS
AT TIMES IN PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS. ONLY CONCERN
IS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS