169 FXUS61 KCAR 021825 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 225 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WITH A LIGHT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT STRATUS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS MAKING THERE WAY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BROUGHT THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIKELY POPS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. EVEN SO...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SHOWERS AROUND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE NAM'S CAPES FOR THAT PERIOD SEEM OVERDONE (1000+ J/KG OVER NW MAINE), BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACTUALLY ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE STATE. AS ALWAYS, MUCH DEPENDS ON WHAT TIME OF DAY THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPUR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING BOUNDARY MEANS CONDITIONS WILL FEEL INCREASINGLY HUMID, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS REACH INTO THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER QUEBEC, WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. AS SUCH, WE'LL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH FINALLY LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING TO FOLLOW. THIS MEANS WE MAY FINALLY DRY OUT BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING LOW CIGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 16Z-02Z MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES IN PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND IN PATCHY FOG AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS. ONLY CONCERN IS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FOG, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS