505 
FXUS61 KBGM 202330
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
730 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM... WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...H7 SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WRN NY ATTM WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK INTO THE
WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GRIDS. ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER WRN
CWA DUE TO THIS WAVE AND TWEAK TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM.

PREVIOUS DISC...
ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES
INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS
SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO
AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE
WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA
FARTHER E.

FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS
THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE
20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER BERMUDA. THE RESULT WILL BE
QUITE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH
POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOWER
ELEVATION AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN MOST PLACES. 

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND
ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND VERY WARM
HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS
SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LONG LEAD TIME HAVE NOT YET
MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED
SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY WEATHER MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... THEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT UNDER SOME THINNER HIGHER CLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE. THE FLOW WAS DIRECTING MOST OF THE LL
MOISTURE AND OVC LAYER TO WRN NY AND WRN PA AT THIS TIME LEADING
TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. THUS WE WILL SEE MORE VFR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS THAT WILL FALL APART ARND SUNSET. THEN THE LL FLOW
REMAIN SRLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR BELOW A MOIST LAYER ALOFT. THIS CUD LEAD TO A LOWER CLD DECK
ADVECTING NORTHWESTARD OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. ALL
GUIDC ALSO HINTS THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY LAYER WILL
WORK NORTHWESTARD REACHING KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH 8-9Z OR SO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT IFR WILL OCCUR IN THIS LL
MOISTURE BUT DO HAVE 2SM BR AT KELM 9-13Z. GUIDC WAS DROPPING KELM TO
VLIFR WHICH AT THIS TIME IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL ELMIRA FOG
CHECKLIST OR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR KRME AND KSYR I SEE MAYBE A
BKN 5000 FOOT DECK LATE. 

AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHRA FORMING BUT COVERAGE
DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE
RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW I JUST PUT A
5000 FOOT CUMULUS LAYER IN TAFS LATE MON AM.

WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET WITH MORE WSW UNDER 10 KNOTS SUN AM. 

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG.

WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN