505 FXUS61 KBGM 202330 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 730 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM... WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRYER AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 730 PM UPDATE...H7 SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WRN NY ATTM WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GRIDS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER WRN CWA DUE TO THIS WAVE AND TWEAK TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. PREVIOUS DISC... ISLD SHRA WERE RAPIDLY HEADING INTO NRN NY AS SHRT WAVE MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP FIELDS SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM LWR MI TO THE ERN LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE WAS SUPPORTING SOME ISLD SHRA IN SRN ONTARIO AND EVEN INTO WRN PA WHERE UPSLOPING WAS ENHANCING LIFT. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD SOME ISLD SHRA INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT BUT DRIER AIR FARTHER E WILL IMPEDE THE PROGRESS OF THESE SHRA FARTHER E. FOR MONDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE WILL PASS EAST AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN OUTRUN THE LL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS AS THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE E COAST REMAINS INTACT. SO WE HAVE 20-30 POPS FOR ISLD SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MAINLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTING UP OVER BERMUDA. THE RESULT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE WITH POPS IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 90 IN SOME LOWER ELEVATION AND URBANIZED LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST PLACES. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND VERY WARM HUMID AIR AT THE SURFACE THERE IS LIKELY TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS SHOULD ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LONG LEAD TIME HAVE NOT YET MENTIONED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED SOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE DRY WEATHER MAY HOLD WELL INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND HEADS OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT... THEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT UNDER SOME THINNER HIGHER CLDS THIS AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE. THE FLOW WAS DIRECTING MOST OF THE LL MOISTURE AND OVC LAYER TO WRN NY AND WRN PA AT THIS TIME LEADING TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED. THUS WE WILL SEE MORE VFR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS THAT WILL FALL APART ARND SUNSET. THEN THE LL FLOW REMAIN SRLY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ADVECT A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BELOW A MOIST LAYER ALOFT. THIS CUD LEAD TO A LOWER CLD DECK ADVECTING NORTHWESTARD OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THIS. ALL GUIDC ALSO HINTS THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY LAYER WILL WORK NORTHWESTARD REACHING KAVP...KBGM...KELM AND KITH 8-9Z OR SO. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT IFR WILL OCCUR IN THIS LL MOISTURE BUT DO HAVE 2SM BR AT KELM 9-13Z. GUIDC WAS DROPPING KELM TO VLIFR WHICH AT THIS TIME IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OUR LOCAL ELMIRA FOG CHECKLIST OR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. FOR KRME AND KSYR I SEE MAYBE A BKN 5000 FOOT DECK LATE. AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHRA FORMING BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY SINCE RESTRICTIONS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. SO FOR NOW I JUST PUT A 5000 FOOT CUMULUS LAYER IN TAFS LATE MON AM. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE AT 5-8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WITH MORE WSW UNDER 10 KNOTS SUN AM. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG. WED/THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...MSE AVIATION...DJN