818 
FXUS65 KABQ 151212 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
612 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. STILL
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE LIKELY EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS...IMPACTING KLVS...KCAO...AND
POSSIBLY KSRR AND KTCC. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE NEAR
SHOWERS. ONCE THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE...SOMETIME AROUND 15Z TO
17Z...THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT AND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGH TERRAIN AROUND 20Z...
GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STILL 2 TO PERHAPS 3 DAYS LEFT IN CURRENT WET PERIOD ACROSS MOST
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THOUGH THURSDAY FAVORS MORE THE
EAST HALF OF THE STATE. LATEST MOISTURE RECHARGE COURTESY OF A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENHANCED BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD ENSURE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THOUGH THE
WEST THIRD TO POSSIBLY HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY WELL SEE AN
EARLIER START THAN LOCALES FARTHER TO THE EAST. ONE LAST BACK DOOR
FRONT TO COME IN TO THE EAST AND PROBABLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOOKING A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS
INTRUSION NOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS RAIN FREE AS
IT LOOKED ON SOME EARLIER MODEL RUNS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVELY ASSISTED BACK DOOR FRONT HELPED TO FINALLY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS OF NM OVER THE
PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND STILL A PRETTY GOOD SIZED BATCH OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NW NM NOT
TOO LONG BEFORE DAWN. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DO SOME LAST MINUTE
POPS...WX...QPF AND SKY TWEAKING TO 1ST PERIOD MORN GRIDS. ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY LIKELY LATER TODAY. DEFINITELY SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST...AND HOW LONG INTO THE DAY THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LINGER.
BOTH MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON HOW LATE AND HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. WHILE BACK DOOR THAT CAME THROUGH GOOD
PORTION OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS PAST EVE WILL LIKELY FADE
AWAY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE BETWEEN LATE MORN AND MID
AFTN...THERE MAY STILL BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK UPSLOPE AND A FAIRLY
PRIMED ATMOSPHERE TO GET STORMS GOING IN OR NEAR THAT AREA DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...WHICH MAY STEAL SOME OF THE THUNDER...SO TO
SPEAK...FROM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHERE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO
BE MORE COMPROMISED. STILL EXPECT SOME DECENT LATER AFTN AND EVE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N MTNS AND CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND A LITTLE
WAYS TO THE EAST. 

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY 
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE 
COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT PLUS 
A REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN YET 
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE GOOD PORTION OF EAST AND CENTRAL NM. 

CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR LATER TODAY FOR SOME
PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT IN THE END DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE
SINCE THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE BACK DOOR FRONT...NOT
LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AS IT FADES INTO OBSCURITY LATER
TODAY. ALSO WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL ISSUE OF HOW MUCH CONVECTION
CENTRAL AND EAST WILL BE DELAYED BY LATE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION RELATED STABILIZATION. DECIDED FOR NOW JUST TO GO WITH
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF FCST AREA. ALSO...WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORING AREAS WHERE SOILS MAY BE AT OR NEAR
SATURATION...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TODAY AND WED MAY
LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.

NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD EASE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN WED NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MODEST
NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO WESTERN NM ON
THU...BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE OCCURRING UP
TO AT LEAST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCT TO 
PERHAPS NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THURSDAY...AND WILL SHIFT S AND SEWD.
THUS...FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER EASTERN NM.

AS THE UPPER HIGH COZIES UP OVER OR VERY NEAR NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STORM COVERAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. SOME
RECYCLING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ALLOWING A FEW
STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE OVER. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN
OVER NM OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THUS THE BIGGER STORY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE EAST.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS STILL ADVERTISING CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH WETTING 
RAIN MOST AREAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND STARTING 
ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND EXPANDING IN EXTENT THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE STAYED NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL 
AVERAGES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING A FEW DEGREES 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE. AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN 
PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A STRONG 
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. A BACK DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY USHERED IN 
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY AND A BROAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL PERSIST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAY DELAY INITIATION 
OF TODAYS WETTING RAIN A BIT. EARLY MORNING RH RECOVERIES TO BE 
EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES IN THE 
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS.  

WETTING RAIN LIKELY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL...AS LEAST THROUGH AROUND 
MIDNIGHT.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BACKDOOR FRONT ON 
WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT ABOUT BRINGING IT IN LATER...BUT NAM AND 
GFS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. GRIDS MORE CLOSELY REFLECT THE 
NAM SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT NUDGING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS 
AFTER 18Z OR AROUND NOON...AND SLOW ON SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL 
VALLEYS...BUT WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT THE 
EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR 
CONTINUED WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST LATE ON 
WEDNESDAY AND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON 
THURSDAY.

DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS INCREASED 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO TO THE 
SOUTH. WETTING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. BY 
THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND WETTING RAINS 
ARE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN A RECYCLED MOISTURE MODE. 
DURING THIS TIME...HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO 6 INCREASE IN AREA... 
INITIALLY LIMITED TO THE EXTREME WEST ON THURSDAY BUT COVERING 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BY SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE 
EXTREME EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A SIGNIFICANT HIGH CENTERED OVER 
NEW MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED 
WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$