818 FXUS65 KABQ 151212 AAA AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 612 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. STILL MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE LIKELY EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS...IMPACTING KLVS...KCAO...AND POSSIBLY KSRR AND KTCC. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE NEAR SHOWERS. ONCE THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATE...SOMETIME AROUND 15Z TO 17Z...THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT AND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGH TERRAIN AROUND 20Z... GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. 05 && .PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014... .SYNOPSIS... STILL 2 TO PERHAPS 3 DAYS LEFT IN CURRENT WET PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THOUGH THURSDAY FAVORS MORE THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE. LATEST MOISTURE RECHARGE COURTESY OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ENHANCED BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD ENSURE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THOUGH THE WEST THIRD TO POSSIBLY HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY WELL SEE AN EARLIER START THAN LOCALES FARTHER TO THE EAST. ONE LAST BACK DOOR FRONT TO COME IN TO THE EAST AND PROBABLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOOKING A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS INTRUSION NOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS THURSDAY AS WELL. STILL LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT DRYING THEREAFTER...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS RAIN FREE AS IT LOOKED ON SOME EARLIER MODEL RUNS. && .DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVELY ASSISTED BACK DOOR FRONT HELPED TO FINALLY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST PORTIONS OF NM OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS AND STILL A PRETTY GOOD SIZED BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NW NM NOT TOO LONG BEFORE DAWN. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DO SOME LAST MINUTE POPS...WX...QPF AND SKY TWEAKING TO 1ST PERIOD MORN GRIDS. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LIKELY LATER TODAY. DEFINITELY SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND HOW LONG INTO THE DAY THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BOTH MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON HOW LATE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. WHILE BACK DOOR THAT CAME THROUGH GOOD PORTION OF RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS PAST EVE WILL LIKELY FADE AWAY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE BETWEEN LATE MORN AND MID AFTN...THERE MAY STILL BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK UPSLOPE AND A FAIRLY PRIMED ATMOSPHERE TO GET STORMS GOING IN OR NEAR THAT AREA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...WHICH MAY STEAL SOME OF THE THUNDER...SO TO SPEAK...FROM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST WHERE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO BE MORE COMPROMISED. STILL EXPECT SOME DECENT LATER AFTN AND EVE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N MTNS AND CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND A LITTLE WAYS TO THE EAST. YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO NE NM ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES TOWARD NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT PLUS A REPLENISHMENT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE GOOD PORTION OF EAST AND CENTRAL NM. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR LATER TODAY FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT IN THE END DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE SINCE THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE BACK DOOR FRONT...NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AS IT FADES INTO OBSCURITY LATER TODAY. ALSO WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL ISSUE OF HOW MUCH CONVECTION CENTRAL AND EAST WILL BE DELAYED BY LATE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION RELATED STABILIZATION. DECIDED FOR NOW JUST TO GO WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF FCST AREA. ALSO...WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING AREAS WHERE SOILS MAY BE AT OR NEAR SATURATION...SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TODAY AND WED MAY LEAD TO QUICKER RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD EASE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WED NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO WESTERN NM ON THU...BUT MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE OCCURRING UP TO AT LEAST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCT TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THURSDAY...AND WILL SHIFT S AND SEWD. THUS...FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER EASTERN NM. AS THE UPPER HIGH COZIES UP OVER OR VERY NEAR NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STORM COVERAGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE. SOME RECYCLING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ALLOWING A FEW STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THE PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE OVER. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THUS THE BIGGER STORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE EAST. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... MODELS STILL ADVERTISING CONTINUED MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH WETTING RAIN MOST AREAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND STARTING ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND EXPANDING IN EXTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE STAYED NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE. AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. A BACK DOOR FRONT ON MONDAY USHERED IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A BROAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MAY DELAY INITIATION OF TODAYS WETTING RAIN A BIT. EARLY MORNING RH RECOVERIES TO BE EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. WETTING RAIN LIKELY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL...AS LEAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT BACKDOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT ABOUT BRINGING IT IN LATER...BUT NAM AND GFS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. GRIDS MORE CLOSELY REFLECT THE NAM SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT NUDGING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 18Z OR AROUND NOON...AND SLOW ON SOUTHWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS...BUT WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO TO THE SOUTH. WETTING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND WETTING RAINS ARE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN A RECYCLED MOISTURE MODE. DURING THIS TIME...HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO 6 INCREASE IN AREA... INITIALLY LIMITED TO THE EXTREME WEST ON THURSDAY BUT COVERING WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BY SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EXTREME EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A SIGNIFICANT HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING EXPECTED. 05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$