111 
FXUS64 KCRP 150913
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
413 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCE. A BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS /PER 00Z RAOBS AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY/. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL STALL WELL TO OUR NORTH.
COMBINATION OF ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY...DIURNAL HEATING...AND
SLIGHT COOLING OF PBL TEMPS ACROSS NE ZONES SHOULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN WARMER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY/S VALUES /PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES GIVEN SLIGHT COOLING
AT H85 LEVEL/. PRECIP CHANCES LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS LLVL TEMPS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NNE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. H9 TO H8
LAYER WIND FIELD IS PROG TO BE 5 TO 10 KTS STRONGER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD AID IN KEEPING MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID FEELING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT TEMPS...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. &&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE PW VALUES
AT OR SLIGHTLY 2 INCHES WILL EXIST. CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE
NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTH. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
TIME...AND HAVE 30 POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SECTIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH END RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY WARM/HOT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS/WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH 90S ELSEWHERE. THE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  76  96  78  98  /  10  10  10  10  10 
VICTORIA          95  76  96  77  97  /  30  10  10  10  20 
LAREDO           104  81 104  80 105  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ALICE            101  74 100  77 101  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          92  78  91  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10 
COTULLA          102  76 102  77 104  /  10  10  10  10  20 
KINGSVILLE       100  75  99  79 100  /  10  10  10  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       91  80  91  81  94  /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM