111 FXUS64 KCRP 150913 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCE. A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS /PER 00Z RAOBS AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY/. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROG TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL STALL WELL TO OUR NORTH. COMBINATION OF ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY...DIURNAL HEATING...AND SLIGHT COOLING OF PBL TEMPS ACROSS NE ZONES SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES GIVEN WARMER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY/S VALUES /PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES GIVEN SLIGHT COOLING AT H85 LEVEL/. PRECIP CHANCES LOWER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS LLVL TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NNE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. H9 TO H8 LAYER WIND FIELD IS PROG TO BE 5 TO 10 KTS STRONGER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD AID IN KEEPING MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID FEELING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT TEMPS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHERE PW VALUES AT OR SLIGHTLY 2 INCHES WILL EXIST. CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS TIME...AND HAVE 30 POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH END RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM/HOT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 100S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH 90S ELSEWHERE. THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 97 76 96 78 98 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 95 76 96 77 97 / 30 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 104 81 104 80 105 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 101 74 100 77 101 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 92 78 91 82 93 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 102 76 102 77 104 / 10 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 100 75 99 79 100 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 91 80 91 81 94 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ RH/79...SHORT TERM TB/78...LONG TERM