897 
FXUS62 KILM 111954
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUESDAY BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL 
SEASON HAS REMAINED IN PLACE TODAY...MUCH TO THE CONTRARY OF MOST 
FORECAST MODELS. THIS HAS KEPT BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND 
PRECLUDED ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH IT 
TURNED OUT TO BE A COOLER AFTERNOON THAN PREV FCST AND PRECIP HAS 
BEEN HARD PRESSED TO REGENERATE AFTER THE COASTAL MIDDAY LIGHT RAIN 
WAS DONE. SINCE THERE IS A DECENT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING POPS WILL 
RAMP UP IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AND WILL BE GRADED NW TO 
SE...HIGHEST SE WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. MID LEVEL DRYING IS QUITE 
PRONOUNCED BY 00Z OVER NWRN ZONES AND A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER CLOSER 
TO THE COAST. FOG POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT...SINCE 
MOST GUIDANCE 'THINKS' THERE WAS GOOD RAIN TODAY. RIGHT NOW THERE 
SEEMS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY NWRN 
ZONES WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THE MOST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BECOME 
INCREASINGLY PROMINENT AS RIDGE TO WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD TO JOIN 
FORCES WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. 
A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING SAT. 
PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ON SAT 
AND TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES ON SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE AND 
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. 
THE RISK WILL BE EVEN LESS ON SUN AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD 
EXCEPT ALONG AND VERY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE 
TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S 
SAT AND THE MID 90S ON SUN. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MAKE GOOD INLAND 
PROGRESS AND SO AREAS AT AND NEAR THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE BEACHES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 80S 
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD 
EXPECT FOR MID JULY...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A HOT AND DRY MONDAY TO GIVE WAY TO A WET 
PATTERN AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THRU THE REMAINDER 
OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK. 

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE AMAZINGLY IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT OF THE EXTENSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER 
LEVEL HUDSON BAY CANADIAN TROF ACROSS THE MAINLAND U.S.. IN 
FACT...MODELS AGAIN ARE AMAZINGLY SIMILAR IN EXTENDING THIS UPPER 
TROF TO THE GULF COAST STATES. FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD THURSDAY 
THRU FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS IE. GFS AND EUROPEAN...BASICALLY 
KEEP THIS LONGWAVE UPPER TROF POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE UPPER TROF 
AXIS...ORIENTED NE-SW...REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA. 

AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO 
DROP SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL STALL 
ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILM CWA BY MID-WEEK AND REMAIN IN A 
QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A 
RESULT...TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST AND LOWEST 
RESPECTIVELY ON MONDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY REVERSE THAT PROCESS TUE 
THRU MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK-WEEK. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WX 
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN 
THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH. ANY UPPER S/W TROFS ROTATING THRU THIS 
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE THE SEVERE 
THREAT IF THEIR TIMING ACROSS THE FA IS SIMILAR TO THE FRONT.  

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...FRONT APPEARS TO BE HANGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA...WITH PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN
ANYTHING...BE WE SHOULD SEE EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. FLO WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO VFR...PARTICULARLY IF
WINDS STAY ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED ON THE TIME HEIGHT...ALL THE
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY 23Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH THE FOG/STRATUS INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING LIGHT 
WINDS AND RELATIVELY DIMINUTIVE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS 
HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...AS THE 
FRONT IS BEING POORLY HANDLED BY GUIDANCE. CURRENT FCST HAS THE 
FRONT RETREATING INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER 
WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT S TO SWRLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SHOULD 
THE FRONT CONTINUE TO STALL RIGHT OVER THE WATERS THEN A LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FORECAST MAY BE MORE APPROPRIATE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED ON 
SAT AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. ENE TO E WINDS WILL VEER TO SE 
SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO S SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND TO 
SW SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE REGAINS ITS INFLUENCE. THE 
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...UP 
TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2 FT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN 
3 FT SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOOKING AT A SUMMER 
TIME SSW-SW WIND PATTERN AS SFC PRESSURE RIDGING AND A TIGHTENED 
GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH...KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 
KT RANGE. AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL 
BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A TRUE S DIRECTION...AND INCREASE OVERALL 
WIND SPEEDS BY 5 KT. MUCH OF THIS TO OCCUR NEAR SHORE...WITHIN 10 NM 
FROM THE COAST.  BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SFC COLD FRONT IS 
PROGGED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS TO DROP SE-S AND STALL ORIENTED NE-SW 
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...OR JUST INLAND. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY 
FRONT WILL MAKE WINDS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DEPENDING 
ON THE POSITION OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 
FRONT REMAINING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...KEEPING A SOUTHERLY 
DIRECTION IN THE WIND FIELD. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL 
LIKELY DRIVE THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THE PERIOD...WITH 
AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD GROUND SWELL BECOMING EVIDENT AS THE 
FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE CENTERED BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES BETTER 
ESTABLISHED. SCEC AND/OR SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FROM THE COMBINED WINDS AND 
SIGNIFICANT SEAS...AND NOT JUST ONE OF THESE PARAMETERS.   

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MBB/DL