897 FXUS62 KILM 111954 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 354 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN DURING THE WEEKEND AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY TUESDAY BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE MORE TYPICAL OF THE COOL SEASON HAS REMAINED IN PLACE TODAY...MUCH TO THE CONTRARY OF MOST FORECAST MODELS. THIS HAS KEPT BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND PRECLUDED ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH IT TURNED OUT TO BE A COOLER AFTERNOON THAN PREV FCST AND PRECIP HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO REGENERATE AFTER THE COASTAL MIDDAY LIGHT RAIN WAS DONE. SINCE THERE IS A DECENT UPPER WAVE APPROACHING POPS WILL RAMP UP IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AND WILL BE GRADED NW TO SE...HIGHEST SE WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. MID LEVEL DRYING IS QUITE PRONOUNCED BY 00Z OVER NWRN ZONES AND A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOG POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT...SINCE MOST GUIDANCE 'THINKS' THERE WAS GOOD RAIN TODAY. RIGHT NOW THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY NWRN ZONES WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN THE MOST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROMINENT AS RIDGE TO WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD TO JOIN FORCES WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING SAT. PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ON SAT AND TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES ON SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. THE RISK WILL BE EVEN LESS ON SUN AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD EXCEPT ALONG AND VERY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MORE SUNSHINE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS INLAND WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S SAT AND THE MID 90S ON SUN. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MAKE GOOD INLAND PROGRESS AND SO AREAS AT AND NEAR THE COAST WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE BEACHES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID 80S GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS WILL BE RIGHT ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR MID JULY...LOWER TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A HOT AND DRY MONDAY TO GIVE WAY TO A WET PATTERN AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE AMAZINGLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE EXTENSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY CANADIAN TROF ACROSS THE MAINLAND U.S.. IN FACT...MODELS AGAIN ARE AMAZINGLY SIMILAR IN EXTENDING THIS UPPER TROF TO THE GULF COAST STATES. FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS IE. GFS AND EUROPEAN...BASICALLY KEEP THIS LONGWAVE UPPER TROF POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS...ORIENTED NE-SW...REMAINING WEST OF THE ILM CWA. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO DROP SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE ILM CWA BY MID-WEEK AND REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST AND LOWEST RESPECTIVELY ON MONDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY REVERSE THAT PROCESS TUE THRU MUCH OF THE REMAINING WORK-WEEK. ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WX ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE MONDAY THRU TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH. ANY UPPER S/W TROFS ROTATING THRU THIS AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE UPPER TROF COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE THE SEVERE THREAT IF THEIR TIMING ACROSS THE FA IS SIMILAR TO THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...FRONT APPEARS TO BE HANGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH PREDOMINATELY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AT THE PRESENT TIME IS MORE STRATIFORM THAN ANYTHING...BE WE SHOULD SEE EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. FLO WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO VFR...PARTICULARLY IF WINDS STAY ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED ON THE TIME HEIGHT...ALL THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY 23Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH THE FOG/STRATUS INLAND. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DIMINUTIVE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...AS THE FRONT IS BEING POORLY HANDLED BY GUIDANCE. CURRENT FCST HAS THE FRONT RETREATING INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT S TO SWRLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SHOULD THE FRONT CONTINUE TO STALL RIGHT OVER THE WATERS THEN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FORECAST MAY BE MORE APPROPRIATE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED ON SAT AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. ENE TO E WINDS WILL VEER TO SE SAT AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO S SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND TO SW SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE REGAINS ITS INFLUENCE. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2 FT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN 3 FT SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOOKING AT A SUMMER TIME SSW-SW WIND PATTERN AS SFC PRESSURE RIDGING AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH...KEEP SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BACK WINDS SLIGHTLY TO A TRUE S DIRECTION...AND INCREASE OVERALL WIND SPEEDS BY 5 KT. MUCH OF THIS TO OCCUR NEAR SHORE...WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST. BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SFC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS TO DROP SE-S AND STALL ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...OR JUST INLAND. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE WINDS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FRONT REMAINING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...KEEPING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WIND FIELD. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL LIKELY DRIVE THE OVERALL SIGNIFICANT SEAS THRUOUT THE PERIOD...WITH AN UNDERLYING LONGER PERIOD GROUND SWELL BECOMING EVIDENT AS THE FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE CENTERED BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. SCEC AND/OR SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FROM THE COMBINED WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS...AND NOT JUST ONE OF THESE PARAMETERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...MBB/DL