027 
FXHW60 PHFO 091345
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS FAVORING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICALLY QUIET JULY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDWARD AREAS.
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE PREVIOUS 12
HOURS...WITH WITH INVERSIONS BASED BETWEEN 6000 AND 7500 FEET.
ALOFT...A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDS
FROM NEAR KAUAI OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE...BETWEEN STRONG
DEEP LAYERED RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE TO THE EAST OF THE TUTT. AT THE SURFACE...THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1800 MILES NNE OF PHNL...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 30N OUT PAST THE DATELINE.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS
DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS HAWAII. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SPOKE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHING THE BIG
ISLAND FROM THE EAST...WITH SOME POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR
NORTH...MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADES OVER THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MOST COMMON OVER WINDWARD/MAUKA AREAS DURING THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE
WITH SUFFICIENTLY HIGH INVERSIONS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPILL OVER
INTO SOME OF THE LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
THOSE AREAS JUST DOWNWIND FROM THE TERRAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DRYING WITH A LOWERING INVERSION FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND SHOWERS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT SCARCE
EVEN WINDWARD AND MAUKA DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEATHER ACROSS
THE STATE MAY BE AFFECTED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO. THE DEPRESSION...
CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 1900 MILES ESE OF HILO... CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE WNW...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WEAKENS THIS
SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...AND THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FAUSTO WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT HAWAII AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO COULD BRING AN
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND SKY COVER SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL GENERALLY...WITH TEMPO MVFR LIKELY IN WINDWARD AND 
MAUKA AREAS GENERATED BY PASSING TRADE SHOWERS.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY 
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELOW 7000 FEET DUE TO THE 
BREEZY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS DID NOT DEPICT ANY WINDS OF 25 KNOTS IN
THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE
SOUNDINGS AND 88D VWP DATA ARE STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
HIGH-RES MODELS ALONG WITH LOCAL GUIDANCE INSIST THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING SCA UNCHANGED. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN MOST AREAS.

AS FOR SURF...A SMALL SSW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY...PRODUCING A
MINOR BUMP ON SOUTH FACING SHORES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTH SWELL
IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...THEN PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD PRODUCE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SOUTH
FACING SHORES. A SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL...PRODUCED BY
DISTANT TYPHOON NEOGURI...MAY IMPACT EXPOSED WEST FACING SHORES
FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL SHORT
PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE ON EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG 
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...KINEL