027 FXHW60 PHFO 091345 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 345 AM HST WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS FAVORING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO MAY AFFECT THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... A TYPICALLY QUIET JULY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE USUAL WINDWARD AREAS. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS...WITH WITH INVERSIONS BASED BETWEEN 6000 AND 7500 FEET. ALOFT...A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAUAI OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE...BETWEEN STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE TO THE EAST OF THE TUTT. AT THE SURFACE...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1800 MILES NNE OF PHNL...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 30N OUT PAST THE DATELINE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME ACROSS HAWAII. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SPOKE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST...WITH SOME POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE EAST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH...MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADES OVER THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST COMMON OVER WINDWARD/MAUKA AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH SUFFICIENTLY HIGH INVERSIONS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPILL OVER INTO SOME OF THE LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS JUST DOWNWIND FROM THE TERRAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DRYING WITH A LOWERING INVERSION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND SHOWERS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT SCARCE EVEN WINDWARD AND MAUKA DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE MAY BE AFFECTED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO. THE DEPRESSION... CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 1900 MILES ESE OF HILO... CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WNW...WITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WEAKENS THIS SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...AND THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FAUSTO WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT HAWAII AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO COULD BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL GENERALLY...WITH TEMPO MVFR LIKELY IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS GENERATED BY PASSING TRADE SHOWERS. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELOW 7000 FEET DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS. && .MARINE... THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS DID NOT DEPICT ANY WINDS OF 25 KNOTS IN THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUNDINGS AND 88D VWP DATA ARE STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND HIGH-RES MODELS ALONG WITH LOCAL GUIDANCE INSIST THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING SCA UNCHANGED. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN MOST AREAS. AS FOR SURF...A SMALL SSW SWELL WILL ARRIVE TODAY...PRODUCING A MINOR BUMP ON SOUTH FACING SHORES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTH SWELL IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...THEN PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SWELL COULD PRODUCE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON SOUTH FACING SHORES. A SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL...PRODUCED BY DISTANT TYPHOON NEOGURI...MAY IMPACT EXPOSED WEST FACING SHORES FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE ON EAST FACING SHORES. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON AVIATION...KINEL