590 
FXUS63 KFSD 030842
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. 
WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE MOST AREAS REMAIN CLEAR. 
SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR 
NORTHERN HALF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING 
ALONG THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME MODEST 850 
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS 
MORNING...ADDITIONAL ACCAS MAY BUILD INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN 
COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL OUTLOOK IS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN OUR WESTERN THIRD 
THIS MORNING AND SPREADS INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR AND AREAS EAST THIS 
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE OUR 
EASTERN THIRD WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING THE LOW TO MID 70S. ELSEWHERE 
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW READINGS IN 
THE MID 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA 
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE SOME UPPER 50S AND NEAR 60S 
DEWPOINTS BEGIN CREEPING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS 
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE 
SOME REMNANTS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST OR SOUTHWEST 
CREEP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH QUITE A 
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS...ONLY WENT 
WITH MINIMAL POPS - ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME WEST AFTER 
4 AM. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING LATE TONIGHT 
WHILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WARM LOWS QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO THIS 
MORNING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

UPPER RIDGING AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE 
FRIDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF 
SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OVER THE AREA 
DURING THE HOLIDAY DAYTIME. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DEPTH THEREOF WILL 
LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS...WITH THE BEST THREAT LIKELY TO BE FRIDAY 
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET. STILL...QUESTIONS ON 
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN 
THEN. THE THREAT SHOULD BE STARTING TO INCREASE ABOUT THE TIME 
EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS GET GOING.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW WEST TO EAST 
WARMING TREND WITH UPPER 70S EAST TO UPPER 80S WEST...AND SOUTHERLY 
WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY LEVEL DURING THE DAY.

CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP THE WARMING 
GOING...BUT DECREASE THE WARM ADVECTION AND ALSO THE THREAT OF 
STORMS...AND WHAT THREAT THERE IS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST. THE WARMING 
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM JUST BELOW 
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 90 FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH LESSER WINDS 
THAN INDEPENDENCE DAY.

A SHORT WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COOL 
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT 
SEEMS THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE 
FRONT...IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO BE MUCH...AND STORMS SHOULD STILL 
BE MAINLY EAST WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO WARM AND WINDS TOO 
WEAK FOR MUCH IF ANYTHING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.

A DRY AND MILD DAY MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED MILD 
TEMPERATURES AND UNCERTAIN STORM CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. THE SHORT 
WAVE BRINGING THE MODEST COOLING FOR MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 
OTHERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS DUE TO BRING A THREAT OF STORMS MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONE AFTER THAT IS NATURALLY ENOUGH 
HARDER TO TIME AND GAUGE IN STRENGTH BUT COULD BRING SOME STORMS 
WEDNESDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...IT SEEMS STORMS WILL NOT BE NUMEROUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...