590 FXUS63 KFSD 030842 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 342 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE MOST AREAS REMAIN CLEAR. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR NORTHERN HALF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME MODEST 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL ACCAS MAY BUILD INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL OUTLOOK IS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN OUR WESTERN THIRD THIS MORNING AND SPREADS INTO THE I29 CORRIDOR AND AREAS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE OUR EASTERN THIRD WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING THE LOW TO MID 70S. ELSEWHERE THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED...PERHAPS A FEW READINGS IN THE MID 80S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE SOME UPPER 50S AND NEAR 60S DEWPOINTS BEGIN CREEPING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME REMNANTS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST OR SOUTHWEST CREEP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS...ONLY WENT WITH MINIMAL POPS - ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME WEST AFTER 4 AM. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING LATE TONIGHT WHILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WARM LOWS QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 UPPER RIDGING AND LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY DAYTIME. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DEPTH THEREOF WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS...WITH THE BEST THREAT LIKELY TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET. STILL...QUESTIONS ON FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EVEN THEN. THE THREAT SHOULD BE STARTING TO INCREASE ABOUT THE TIME EVENING FIREWORKS DISPLAYS GET GOING. TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW WEST TO EAST WARMING TREND WITH UPPER 70S EAST TO UPPER 80S WEST...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY LEVEL DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP THE WARMING GOING...BUT DECREASE THE WARM ADVECTION AND ALSO THE THREAT OF STORMS...AND WHAT THREAT THERE IS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST. THE WARMING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM JUST BELOW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 90 FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH LESSER WINDS THAN INDEPENDENCE DAY. A SHORT WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT...IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO BE MUCH...AND STORMS SHOULD STILL BE MAINLY EAST WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TOO WARM AND WINDS TOO WEAK FOR MUCH IF ANYTHING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. A DRY AND MILD DAY MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNCERTAIN STORM CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. THE SHORT WAVE BRINGING THE MODEST COOLING FOR MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY OTHERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS DUE TO BRING A THREAT OF STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONE AFTER THAT IS NATURALLY ENOUGH HARDER TO TIME AND GAUGE IN STRENGTH BUT COULD BRING SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...IT SEEMS STORMS WILL NOT BE NUMEROUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...