686 
FXUS64 KLZK 172349 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
649 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN SW ARKANSAS WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
KHOT AND KADF OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS TO INCLUDE TEMPO -SHRA AT
BOTH TERMINALS. OTHERWISE CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH OR EAST TO AFFECT
ANY OTHER TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AFTER 10Z-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT KLIT...KHOT...AND KADF...WHILE
INCLUDING FEW-SCT025 AT THE REST OF THE SITES. SHOULD SEE MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-16Z...WITH CIGS THEN LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS AND
SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...
WITH PREDOMINANT UPPER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING SMALL RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 

LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
OUT A BIT THEN RETROGRADE. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO BRING SEVERAL
STRONGER SYSTEMS INTO THE REGION...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
DECREASING TEMPERATURES A BIT.

EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WARM...READINGS
WILL STILL BE ONLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. 

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE 
WEATHER PATTERN OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE LONG TERM...BUT BY LATE 
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL SHIFT 
SOUTH AND WEAKEN. THIS ACTION...ALONG WITH A TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE A WEST TO NORTHWEST 
FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PUT ARKANSAS BACK IN LINE FOR SOME DECENT RAIN 
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER PLUS TO THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH IS THAT 
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SPARING THE STATE FROM MID TO UPPER 90S THAT 
COULD ACCOMPANY PROLONGED RIDGING THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE SUMMER 
MONTHS. 

AS MENTIONED...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT 
BE A SURE THING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE 
STATE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE NW FLOW ALOFT 
WILL PROVIDE A PATH FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE 
AREA AND HELP INITIATE THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  70  91  69 /  10  10  10  10 
CAMDEN AR         90  71  92  69 /  20  10  10  10 
HARRISON AR       86  69  89  67 /  10  10  10  10 
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  72  92  71 /  20  10  10  10 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10 
MONTICELLO AR     89  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10 
MOUNT IDA AR      88  71  90  68 /  20  10  10  10 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  10 
NEWPORT AR        89  72  92  71 /  10  10  10  10 
PINE BLUFF AR     88  72  92  71 /  20  10  10  10 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  70  93  67 /  20  10  10  10 
SEARCY AR         88  71  91  68 /  10  10  10  10 
STUTTGART AR      89  73  92  71 /  20  10  10  10 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64