686 FXUS64 KLZK 172349 AAA AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 649 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... EXPECT ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN SW ARKANSAS WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO KHOT AND KADF OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS TO INCLUDE TEMPO -SHRA AT BOTH TERMINALS. OTHERWISE CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH OR EAST TO AFFECT ANY OTHER TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AFTER 10Z-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT KLIT...KHOT...AND KADF...WHILE INCLUDING FEW-SCT025 AT THE REST OF THE SITES. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-16Z...WITH CIGS THEN LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS AND SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS... WITH PREDOMINANT UPPER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE...IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND WILL EVENTUALLY FLATTEN OUT A BIT THEN RETROGRADE. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST FLOW TO BRING SEVERAL STRONGER SYSTEMS INTO THE REGION...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES A BIT. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WARM...READINGS WILL STILL BE ONLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE LONG TERM...BUT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN. THIS ACTION...ALONG WITH A TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PUT ARKANSAS BACK IN LINE FOR SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER PLUS TO THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SPARING THE STATE FROM MID TO UPPER 90S THAT COULD ACCOMPANY PROLONGED RIDGING THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. AS MENTIONED...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE A SURE THING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A PATH FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE AREA AND HELP INITIATE THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 88 70 91 69 / 10 10 10 10 CAMDEN AR 90 71 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 HARRISON AR 86 69 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 88 72 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 88 72 93 72 / 20 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 89 72 93 72 / 20 10 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 88 71 90 68 / 20 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 87 70 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 NEWPORT AR 89 72 92 71 / 10 10 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 88 72 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 70 93 67 / 20 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 88 71 91 68 / 10 10 10 10 STUTTGART AR 89 73 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...64