173 
FXUS66 KLOX 162022
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
120 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE AREA BRINGING BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND 
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE 
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO 
NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH 
CLOUDS DEVELOPING UNDER A 3000' MARINE LYR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED 
PRETTY WELL TODAY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE SAME 
AREAS AS LAST NIGHT, THOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE LONGER. HIGHS TUE 
WITHIN A FEW DEG OF TODAY'S LEVELS.

WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING EAST WED MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW 
DEGREES OF WARMING, MORE SO ACROSS INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. MORE 
IMPRESSIVE WARMING ON TAP FOR THU AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, FORCING 
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE MARINE LYR DEPTH.

BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS 
BUT MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BELOW 
PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY AS WELL BUT AGAIN BELOW 
ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...GFS AND ECMWF STILL EXHIBITING ENOUGH 
DIFFERENCES TO KEEP CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS QUITE 
LOW, THOUGH AGAIN MINIMAL IMPACTS EITHER WAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE 
RIDGE REALLY BUMPING UP FRI WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY SHORT WAVE 
MOVING INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN QUITE A BIT. 
THOSE SAME KINDS OF ISSUES PLAGUE THE MODELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHEN THE ECMWF SHOWS HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 
592DM UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WHILE THE GFS 
SHOWS YET ANOTHER WEAK TROF COMING THROUGH. SO WHILE THE POTENTIAL 
IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP, ESPECIALLY INLAND, IT COULD 
EASILY JUST BE A NORMAL JUNE GLOOM PATTERN. THE FORECAST CONTINUES 
TO FAVOR THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION, WHICH IS 
WARMER BUT BASICALLY JUST BRINGS US BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. 
UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS AND MID LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS 
RANGED FROM 2.5KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 3.3KFT OVER THE LA 
BASIN THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIFFER LITTLE 
TUEDAY MORNING. MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 17/04Z 
AND AFTER 17/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT.   

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 17/02-17/05Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 022 
THROUGH 17/17Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 013 BETWEEN 17/07-17/17Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 024 
THEREAFTER.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...16/130 PM.

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER INNER 
WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL 
REDEVELOP OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BELOW 
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND THEN 
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY 
THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET ARE LIKELY NORTH OF THE AREA 
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 
8-10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SMALL SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. 
 
&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SMITH

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES