173 FXUS66 KLOX 162022 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 120 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE AREA BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING UNDER A 3000' MARINE LYR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED PRETTY WELL TODAY BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT, THOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE LONGER. HIGHS TUE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF TODAY'S LEVELS. WITH THE TROF AXIS SHIFTING EAST WED MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING, MORE SO ACROSS INTERIOR SLO COUNTY. MORE IMPRESSIVE WARMING ON TAP FOR THU AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, FORCING A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE MARINE LYR DEPTH. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY AS WELL BUT AGAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...GFS AND ECMWF STILL EXHIBITING ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO KEEP CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS QUITE LOW, THOUGH AGAIN MINIMAL IMPACTS EITHER WAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGE REALLY BUMPING UP FRI WHILE THE GFS HAS A DRY SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH KNOCKS THE RIDGE DOWN QUITE A BIT. THOSE SAME KINDS OF ISSUES PLAGUE THE MODELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHEN THE ECMWF SHOWS HEIGHTS RISING UP TO 592DM UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER WEAK TROF COMING THROUGH. SO WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP, ESPECIALLY INLAND, IT COULD EASILY JUST BE A NORMAL JUNE GLOOM PATTERN. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION, WHICH IS WARMER BUT BASICALLY JUST BRINGS US BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION...16/1800Z. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS AND MID LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD TOPS RANGED FROM 2.5KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO 3.3KFT OVER THE LA BASIN THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIFFER LITTLE TUEDAY MORNING. MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 17/04Z AND AFTER 17/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT. KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 015 BETWEEN 17/02-17/05Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 022 THROUGH 17/17Z. KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 013 BETWEEN 17/07-17/17Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 024 THEREAFTER. VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100% VERY LIKELY - 80-95% LIKELY - 60-80% CHANCE - 30-60% VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS && .MARINE...16/130 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT SAL THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT IS LIKELY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET ARE LIKELY NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 8-10 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SMALL SOUTH SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION/MARINE...30 SYNOPSIS...SMITH WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES