129 
FXUS64 KMAF 121008
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
508 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc obs show cold front moving into the S. Plains, and
should begin veering sfc flow throughout the morning. Forecast
soundings suggest a widespread cu field developing by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 7-11 kft agl. Convection is
forecast to initiate ahead of and along the main front as it
pushes thru late this afternoon/evening, and we've inserted a
mention KMAF/KHOB/KINK. IFR stratus will be possible at KMAF near
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

Conditions are mostly quiet this morning after the severe storms 
that raked across the eastern Permian Basin yesterday. A few light 
showers were located across SE NM, but don't expect them to last too 
much longer. Today should be a bit calmer as a cold front currently 
near Lubbock makes its way into the area. The front is expected to 
shave a few degrees off the high temperatures this afternoon, 
especially north of the Pecos River. Very hot conditions will 
continue though along the Rio Grande with highs again between 105 
and 110. Thus will keep the Heat Advisory going through this 
evening. We could see a few storms develop this afternoon mainly
along and south of a line from Hobbs to Midland to Big Lake. This
area will have the strongest heating and best convergence along
the front.

Friday is shaping up to be an interesting and active day as the cold 
front hangs up against the higher terrain. A shortwave will again 
flatten the upper ridge across our region while helping to provide 
lift for showers and thunderstorms. Instability will not be as great 
as Wednesday, but steep lapse rates and strong 0-6 km shear will be 
sufficient for storms to become severe. Model soundings are again 
showing a dry sub-cloud layer so damaging winds will be a good 
possibility with any of the storms. Will follow the NAM closely for 
PoPs as it has done well with storm timing and location the past few 
days.  

A broad upper trough then develops this weekend over the Rockies 
putting us in a weak southwesterly flow aloft. Disturbances in this 
weak flow are often difficult to see more than a day out so will 
keep PoPs isolated for now and continue to monitor in the upcoming 
days. With the absence of the upper ridge, temperatures will only be 
slightly above average. The GFS and ECMWF begin to differ with 
respect to the upper air pattern early next week so did not change 
much in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

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