129 FXUS64 KMAF 121008 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 508 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014 .AVIATION... Latest sfc obs show cold front moving into the S. Plains, and should begin veering sfc flow throughout the morning. Forecast soundings suggest a widespread cu field developing by late morning/early afternoon, w/bases 7-11 kft agl. Convection is forecast to initiate ahead of and along the main front as it pushes thru late this afternoon/evening, and we've inserted a mention KMAF/KHOB/KINK. IFR stratus will be possible at KMAF near the end of the forecast period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014/ DISCUSSION... Conditions are mostly quiet this morning after the severe storms that raked across the eastern Permian Basin yesterday. A few light showers were located across SE NM, but don't expect them to last too much longer. Today should be a bit calmer as a cold front currently near Lubbock makes its way into the area. The front is expected to shave a few degrees off the high temperatures this afternoon, especially north of the Pecos River. Very hot conditions will continue though along the Rio Grande with highs again between 105 and 110. Thus will keep the Heat Advisory going through this evening. We could see a few storms develop this afternoon mainly along and south of a line from Hobbs to Midland to Big Lake. This area will have the strongest heating and best convergence along the front. Friday is shaping up to be an interesting and active day as the cold front hangs up against the higher terrain. A shortwave will again flatten the upper ridge across our region while helping to provide lift for showers and thunderstorms. Instability will not be as great as Wednesday, but steep lapse rates and strong 0-6 km shear will be sufficient for storms to become severe. Model soundings are again showing a dry sub-cloud layer so damaging winds will be a good possibility with any of the storms. Will follow the NAM closely for PoPs as it has done well with storm timing and location the past few days. A broad upper trough then develops this weekend over the Rockies putting us in a weak southwesterly flow aloft. Disturbances in this weak flow are often difficult to see more than a day out so will keep PoPs isolated for now and continue to monitor in the upcoming days. With the absence of the upper ridge, temperatures will only be slightly above average. The GFS and ECMWF begin to differ with respect to the upper air pattern early next week so did not change much in the extended. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell. && $$ 44