746 
FXUS63 KICT 291747
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

WEAK MID-UPPER LOW THAT HAD MOVED SE OVER THE RED RIVER 2 NIGHTS
AGO HAS HIT THE BRAKES OVER LOUISIANA & CUT-OFF AS IT ENCOUNTERED
MID- LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE MASSIVE
UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OF ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS & IS COVERING NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AMERICA IS FORCING THE FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER
CYCLONE THAT CROSSED THE OREGON COAST LAST NIGHT NE TOWARD
ALBERTA. DOWNSTAIRS ALL OF THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD IS MOSTLY CLEAR &
CALM WHICH IS ENABLING FOG TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

AN UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST
TOMORROW NIGHT & SAT AS ITS PARENT CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE
FR0M ALBERTA TO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THIS WOULD FORCE
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN AS HEATING AND AMPLE COMBINE TO POP A FEW CELLS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON FRI AS THE WEAK LOW POSITIONED OVER LOUISIANA BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE TOWARD TX THEREBY ENABLING RICHER & DEEPENING
MOISTURE TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS. HEAVY
RAINS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY PRODUCT. WITH LOSS OF HEATING
COVERAGE WOULD DECREASE FRI EVENING. A VIRTUAL REPEAT SHOULD OCCUR
SAT & SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

SUNDAY-TUE:
THE APPROACHING (& SHEARING) MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHING THE
ROCKIES WILL INDUCE MARKED MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE KS
NEIGHBORHOOD ON SUNDAY. WITH THE STRENGTHENING CAP ~800MB
SAFETY=SEALED ON SUNDAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
KICT COUNTRY ARE DIMINISHING. AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL & NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST KS ON SUNDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO CENTRAL KS WHERE CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE BRINGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL KS MON &
TUE. THESE FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

BUOYANT AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST KS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS AND EFFECTS FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER LOW ARE FELT. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
TURNPIKE AS WELL...GIVEN CURRENT AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD AND
UNCAPPED AIRMASS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE BY SUNSET WITH
LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. BY LATE TONIGHT...THINKING IFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF
KS...AS RICH MOISTURE SLOSHES WEST AMIDST DIURNAL COOLING. BEST
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME IS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR WESTWARD EXPANSION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN BETTER
UPSLOPE EFFECTS FURTHER WEST. 

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  84  66 /  20  20  30  10 
HUTCHINSON      86  65  84  66 /  20  10  20   0 
NEWTON          84  65  83  65 /  20  20  30  10 
ELDORADO        83  65  82  65 /  20  20  30  10 
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  65  83  66 /  20  20  30  10 
RUSSELL         88  65  85  65 /   0   0  20   0 
GREAT BEND      87  64  85  64 /   0   0  20   0 
SALINA          86  65  85  66 /  20  10  20   0 
MCPHERSON       85  65  84  65 /  20  10  20   0 
COFFEYVILLE     85  66  83  66 /  30  20  50  30 
CHANUTE         84  66  82  66 /  30  20  40  20 
IOLA            83  66  81  66 /  30  20  40  20 
PARSONS-KPPF    84  66  82  66 /  30  20  50  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$