746 FXUS63 KICT 291747 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 ...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 WEAK MID-UPPER LOW THAT HAD MOVED SE OVER THE RED RIVER 2 NIGHTS AGO HAS HIT THE BRAKES OVER LOUISIANA & CUT-OFF AS IT ENCOUNTERED MID- LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OF ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS & IS COVERING NEARLY ALL OF NORTH AMERICA IS FORCING THE FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT CROSSED THE OREGON COAST LAST NIGHT NE TOWARD ALBERTA. DOWNSTAIRS ALL OF THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD IS MOSTLY CLEAR & CALM WHICH IS ENABLING FOG TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 AN UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST TOMORROW NIGHT & SAT AS ITS PARENT CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE FR0M ALBERTA TO THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. THIS WOULD FORCE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE DIURNALLY- DRIVEN AS HEATING AND AMPLE COMBINE TO POP A FEW CELLS OVER SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRI AS THE WEAK LOW POSITIONED OVER LOUISIANA BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD TX THEREBY ENABLING RICHER & DEEPENING MOISTURE TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS. HEAVY RAINS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY PRODUCT. WITH LOSS OF HEATING COVERAGE WOULD DECREASE FRI EVENING. A VIRTUAL REPEAT SHOULD OCCUR SAT & SAT NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 SUNDAY-TUE: THE APPROACHING (& SHEARING) MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WILL INDUCE MARKED MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD ON SUNDAY. WITH THE STRENGTHENING CAP ~800MB SAFETY=SEALED ON SUNDAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF KICT COUNTRY ARE DIMINISHING. AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL & NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST KS ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO CENTRAL KS WHERE CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL KS MON & TUE. THESE FACETS OF FORECAST ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 BUOYANT AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST KS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS AND EFFECTS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER LOW ARE FELT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE AS WELL...GIVEN CURRENT AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. BY LATE TONIGHT...THINKING IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF KS...AS RICH MOISTURE SLOSHES WEST AMIDST DIURNAL COOLING. BEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME IS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WESTWARD EXPANSION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN BETTER UPSLOPE EFFECTS FURTHER WEST. ADK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 86 66 84 66 / 20 20 30 10 HUTCHINSON 86 65 84 66 / 20 10 20 0 NEWTON 84 65 83 65 / 20 20 30 10 ELDORADO 83 65 82 65 / 20 20 30 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 86 65 83 66 / 20 20 30 10 RUSSELL 88 65 85 65 / 0 0 20 0 GREAT BEND 87 64 85 64 / 0 0 20 0 SALINA 86 65 85 66 / 20 10 20 0 MCPHERSON 85 65 84 65 / 20 10 20 0 COFFEYVILLE 85 66 83 66 / 30 20 50 30 CHANUTE 84 66 82 66 / 30 20 40 20 IOLA 83 66 81 66 / 30 20 40 20 PARSONS-KPPF 84 66 82 66 / 30 20 50 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$