492 
FXUS63 KEAX 162116
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

The deep upper trough which has engulfed the region for the past 
several days with unseasonably cool weather has shifted into the 
Great Lakes and OH Valley. However, northwest flow on the backside 
of this system continues to funnel in cool unsettled weather into 
the Mid MO River Valley. Short term concerns feature an area of 
showers moving through west central MO this evening, possible record 
setting low temperatures and frost.

An elongated shortwave trough sliding through NE combined with 
layered frontogenesis will spread showers from eastern NE through 
eastern KS into west central MO by early evening. Short range and 
Hi-Res models have shifted the area of rain further east vs 12-18 
hours ago. There is a noticeable discrepancy between the NAM and all 
other models in how fast the rain moves out. The NAM doesn't clear 
out the rain till after midnight and holds onto the clouds longer as 
well. Weak high pressure will build into the region and depending on 
how fast the clouds clear out will go a long ways towards allowing 
any frost to form...as well as whether or not record low 
temperatures are broken. For now feel comfortable enough that 
northern MO and northeast KS will clear out sufficiently to allow 
temperatures to bottom out in the middle 30s with frost forming. As 
such have issued a short duration frost advisory for northern MO and 
northeast KS.

The weekend will see a gradual moderation in temperatures as 
shortwave ridging aloft migrates east across the Rockies and pushes 
out the northwest flow regime. Weak high pressure on Saturday will 
still maintain our cool bias with readings about 10 degrees below 
average. Sunday should be able to get back to around 70.

Moderate warm air advection will finally arrive for the start of the 
work week with much warmer air overspreading the region by Tuesday 
as a warm front bulges north through MO. This boundary is expected 
to stall near the MO/IA border by mid-week and should become the 
focus for scattered convection once deeper moisture arrives. 
Temperatures are likely to reach well into the 80s by mid-week and 
give us a taste of early summer.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

Will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast. Mid level ceilings
between 7-10k ft are expected to spread east into west central MO
later this afternoon and linger through the evening. An upper level
system diving SSE through SD will generate a band of showers with the
bulk of them passing just south of KMCI/KMKC. Winds will remain light
as weak high pressure builds in late tonight.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 413 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014

Another night of record or near record cold temperatures are
possible for many areas tonight.

City........May 17th Record Low/Year

Kansas City........39/1895
St. Joseph.........36/2011

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 7 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 7 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-030>033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ
CLIMATE...MJ