492 FXUS63 KEAX 162116 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 416 PM CDT Fri May 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014 The deep upper trough which has engulfed the region for the past several days with unseasonably cool weather has shifted into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. However, northwest flow on the backside of this system continues to funnel in cool unsettled weather into the Mid MO River Valley. Short term concerns feature an area of showers moving through west central MO this evening, possible record setting low temperatures and frost. An elongated shortwave trough sliding through NE combined with layered frontogenesis will spread showers from eastern NE through eastern KS into west central MO by early evening. Short range and Hi-Res models have shifted the area of rain further east vs 12-18 hours ago. There is a noticeable discrepancy between the NAM and all other models in how fast the rain moves out. The NAM doesn't clear out the rain till after midnight and holds onto the clouds longer as well. Weak high pressure will build into the region and depending on how fast the clouds clear out will go a long ways towards allowing any frost to form...as well as whether or not record low temperatures are broken. For now feel comfortable enough that northern MO and northeast KS will clear out sufficiently to allow temperatures to bottom out in the middle 30s with frost forming. As such have issued a short duration frost advisory for northern MO and northeast KS. The weekend will see a gradual moderation in temperatures as shortwave ridging aloft migrates east across the Rockies and pushes out the northwest flow regime. Weak high pressure on Saturday will still maintain our cool bias with readings about 10 degrees below average. Sunday should be able to get back to around 70. Moderate warm air advection will finally arrive for the start of the work week with much warmer air overspreading the region by Tuesday as a warm front bulges north through MO. This boundary is expected to stall near the MO/IA border by mid-week and should become the focus for scattered convection once deeper moisture arrives. Temperatures are likely to reach well into the 80s by mid-week and give us a taste of early summer. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014 Will maintain VFR conditions through the forecast. Mid level ceilings between 7-10k ft are expected to spread east into west central MO later this afternoon and linger through the evening. An upper level system diving SSE through SD will generate a band of showers with the bulk of them passing just south of KMCI/KMKC. Winds will remain light as weak high pressure builds in late tonight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 413 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2014 Another night of record or near record cold temperatures are possible for many areas tonight. City........May 17th Record Low/Year Kansas City........39/1895 St. Joseph.........36/2011 && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 7 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-102. MO...FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM to 7 AM CDT Saturday FOR MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-030>033. && $$ UPDATE...MJ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...MJ CLIMATE...MJ