752 
FXUS64 KMEG 141938
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED NEAR CORINTH MS AT
18Z...TRACKING SLOWLY NNE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NE
MS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS MOVING EAST. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR EXTREME NE MS AND THE SE
PART OF WEST TN WHERE SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
INCREASING SHEAR MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS
BACKING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY SO A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN MID TN THIS EVENING
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL END THE
SEVERE THREAT. THE PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT SO WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OF EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY 4 PM. DROPPED POPS SOME
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ASSOCD WITH SFC LOW LIFTS OUT A LITTLE
SOONER THOUGH KEPT AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OVERNIGHT SINCE THE UPPER
TROF WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOOD THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING DESPITE PLENTIFUL
CLOUD COVER.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WOBBLE ON OVER TO THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE BRINGING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS/ AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO THE
MIDSOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT A
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND INTERACT WITH A COUPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN/MS BORDER...TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS WILL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. 

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

MIXED FLIGHT RULES WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH JBR
AND MEM...WHERE WINDS ARE NORTHWEST AND GUSTING FROM 10 KTS TO
AROUND 18 KTS AND CEILINGS ARE IMPROVING. FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE 
THROUGH MKL AND TUP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAINLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDER AT
MKL AND TUP THROUGH 22Z. CEILINGS AT ALL SITES WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNSET WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AT JBR AROUND 09Z AND ELSEWHERE
AFTER 14Z.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$