752 FXUS64 KMEG 141938 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 238 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED NEAR CORINTH MS AT 18Z...TRACKING SLOWLY NNE...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NE MS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IS MOVING EAST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR EXTREME NE MS AND THE SE PART OF WEST TN WHERE SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS BACKING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY SO A WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NRN MID TN THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL END THE SEVERE THREAT. THE PRECIP SHIELD ON THE NW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS ALREADY LIFTING OUT SO WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OF EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY 4 PM. DROPPED POPS SOME THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ASSOCD WITH SFC LOW LIFTS OUT A LITTLE SOONER THOUGH KEPT AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OVERNIGHT SINCE THE UPPER TROF WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOOD THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING DESPITE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND WOBBLE ON OVER TO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE BRINGING PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS/ AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND INTERACT WITH A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TN/MS BORDER...TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS WILL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. SJM && .AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE MIXED FLIGHT RULES WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH JBR AND MEM...WHERE WINDS ARE NORTHWEST AND GUSTING FROM 10 KTS TO AROUND 18 KTS AND CEILINGS ARE IMPROVING. FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MKL AND TUP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MAINLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDER AT MKL AND TUP THROUGH 22Z. CEILINGS AT ALL SITES WILL BEGIN TO LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNSET WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AT JBR AROUND 09Z AND ELSEWHERE AFTER 14Z. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD- CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS. MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN- PEMISCOT. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$