777 
FXUS63 KIND 032022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. 

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY 
SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER 
SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL 
BE A POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY 
PART OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A 
WARM FRONT TUESDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR 
MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THURSDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT IN AS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY 
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 
STUBBORN CIRROSTRATUS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SLIP AWAY TO THE 
EAST...SO ANTICIPATE A BRIGHTER REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED 
CU. 18Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE 
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...THEN 
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SUPPRESSING THE 
RIDGE IN THE PROCESS. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO 
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY 
CLOUDY OVER FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NO PRECIP AS THE 
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS 
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GUSTY WINDS WILL 
DROP OFF NEAR SUNSET WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10MPH 
OVERNIGHT. 

TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED RUNNING WITH A CONSMOS BLEND 
FOR LOWS. SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...AS ITS 
PLACEMENT WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPS AND CLOUD 
COVERAGE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS IS PRESENTING A
LOWER CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO ALIGNMENT ON DROPPING THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN ITS TREK 
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE 
ORGANIZING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH BY LATE 
SUNDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO 
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR GLANCING ACROSS THE 
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. 

IN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE LOCATION OF THE 
BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ALIGN OVER THE REGION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES 
ALOFT TRAVERSE THE AREA. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE 
FEATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CARRYING LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE 
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MIDDAY SUNDAY AND 
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES 
AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE 
HIGH RETREATS NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE 
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

TEMPS...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PARK JUST SOUTH OF 
THE FORECAST AREA...THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB FRONT IS LIKELY TO SET 
UP DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...SETTING UP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PEAKS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE 
A WIDE VARIANCE IN TEMPS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY AS 
GREAT A DIFFERENCE AS 15-20 DEGREES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. 
WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS AND IN THE NORTHEAST HALF 
LIGHT PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY AT OR BELOW COOLER 
METMOS GUIDANCE. CONSALL MATCHED THIS THINKING WELL AND WAS 
UTILIZED. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO 
GET OUT OF THE 50S ON MONDAY. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AS 
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASED SUNSHINE 
WILL ENABLE WARMEST DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD GO UP 
FROM THERE FOR MIDWEEK. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NO REASON FOR MAJOR CHANGES TO REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF GOOD AGREEMENT. 

FOR MUCH OF PERIOD THE WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY EXACT POSITION 
OF FRONTS AT SURFACE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. MINOR ERRORS IN 
CURRENT FORECASTS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHAT WE
EXPERIENCE. SOME SUCH ERRORS LIKELY THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 032100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014

DECREASED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT AND KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH 
00Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS 10 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER. 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO 
MENTION IN TAFS.

WEST WINDS 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 
DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK/MK

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