777 FXUS63 KIND 032022 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 422 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FOR MIDWEEK. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT IN AS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STUBBORN CIRROSTRATUS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SLIP AWAY TO THE EAST...SO ANTICIPATE A BRIGHTER REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CU. 18Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE IN THE PROCESS. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NO PRECIP AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DROP OFF NEAR SUNSET WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10MPH OVERNIGHT. TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORTED RUNNING WITH A CONSMOS BLEND FOR LOWS. SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...AS ITS PLACEMENT WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS IS PRESENTING A LOWER CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP FORECAST AT THIS POINT. MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO ALIGNMENT ON DROPPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNDAY EVENING...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN ITS TREK BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR GLANCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. IN BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ALIGN OVER THE REGION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE AREA. DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CARRYING LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PARK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB FRONT IS LIKELY TO SET UP DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...SETTING UP A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PEAKS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A WIDE VARIANCE IN TEMPS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY AS GREAT A DIFFERENCE AS 15-20 DEGREES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM CLOUDS AND IN THE NORTHEAST HALF LIGHT PRECIP...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY AT OR BELOW COOLER METMOS GUIDANCE. CONSALL MATCHED THIS THINKING WELL AND WAS UTILIZED. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ON MONDAY. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL ENABLE WARMEST DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD GO UP FROM THERE FOR MIDWEEK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NO REASON FOR MAJOR CHANGES TO REGIONAL INITIALIZATION. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN SPITE OF GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR MUCH OF PERIOD THE WEATHER WILL BE DETERMINED BY EXACT POSITION OF FRONTS AT SURFACE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. MINOR ERRORS IN CURRENT FORECASTS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHAT WE EXPERIENCE. SOME SUCH ERRORS LIKELY THAT FAR OUT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 032100Z IND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014 DECREASED HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE A BIT AND KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH 00Z...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS 10 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. WEST WINDS 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN EVENING. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...RYAN SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM....JK AVIATION...JK/MK VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS