313 
FXUS63 KMKX 291119 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
619 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

250 JET SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS NEARLY-STACKED MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED 
LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BECOMING CENTERED 
OVER THE MN/WI BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF LA CROSSE BY 12 WED.

CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH WITH SHORT WAVE...ROTATING 
AROUND 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT SHOULD BE NORTH OF CWA BY 
18Z. SHOULD SEE ANY SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN WAKE OF THIS 
WAVE...THEN SEE THE SHOWERS FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
WITH FORCING FROM ANOTHER WAVE AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. NOT 
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDER AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE EAST OVER 
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH LOW LEVEL JET UNDER EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET 
MAX. STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED 
THUNDER MENTION.

MODELS DIFFER IN HOW FAR INTO SRN WI TO BRING SURFACE WARM FRONT 
TODAY. FOLLOWED A COOLER SOLUTION OFFERED BY A CONSENSUS BLEND THAT 
STILL BRINGS SOME MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON.

AGAIN MODELS DIFFER IN MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW THROUGH REGION 
TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM CENTERING THE SYSTEM OVER SW WI BY 12Z WED 
WHILE THE FATHER EAST GFS AND ECMWF ALLOW COOLER TEMPS INTO AT LEAST 
THE WESTERN CWA BY WED MORNING. AGAIN A CONSENSUS BLEND FOLLOWED. 

PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT AND HIGHER DEW POINTS COULD LEAD TO SOME 
FOG...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT 
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT BEARS WATCHING.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BY 
THURSDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MEANDERED TO OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE SFC LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY...OR 
JUST WANDERING A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SETUP SPELLS CONTINUED 
CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 

COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT LEAST WINDS WILL 
LIKELY BE WESTERLY BOTH DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP AWAY THE EVEN 
COOLER LAKE AIRMASS. 

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT 
TIMES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE 
WAVES...SO JUST KEPT A GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS 
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW 
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. 

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...IFR CIGS...WITH SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE
MOVED INTO SRN WI WITH INCREASING MOSITURE AROUND WARM FRONT
LIFTING TOWARD THE IL/WI BORDER AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
SRN IOWA. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO FAR SRN
WI...BUT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT BEST. 

ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN NW TO N
CENTRAL IL AND WILL MOVE INTO SRN WI LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AS WELL. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER
AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SRN
WI FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN EAST AS THE BAGGY
GRADIENT AROUND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE STATE. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE EASING...WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO CURRENT
HEADLINE EXPIRATION LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE IS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL OF DENSE FOG
BECOMING WIDESPREAD IF THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW PUSHES FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR 50F DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL IL TO MOVE ACROSS THE
COLDER WATERS OF THE LAKE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV